The season is almost here, ladies and gentlemen. In less than two weeks, TCU and North Carolina will kick off the college football season in Ireland.

That means it’s high time I deliver five bold predictions for the upcoming Big 12 football season.

1. The Big 12 Will Win a Playoff Game This Year

Nothing will generate more national respect for the Big 12 than winning in the playoff. I think the league gets its first win of the 12-team era this year.

But there is a catch: that doesn’t necessarily mean beating a Power Four team. I think there’s a good chance the Big 12 winds up with the five seed, which would most likely mean hosting a Group of Five twelve seed.

Oregon’s shellacking of Big 12 champion Texas Tech last year will make it difficult for the league to crack the top four again, so five feels like the default ceiling for an unbeaten or one-loss champion.

With Texas Tech’s soft schedule, the Red Raiders may need to go 12-0 to get there. BYU’s game against Notre Dame could give the Cougars enough juice to survive a slip-up somewhere else along the way.

A sneaky candidate here is Arizona State. The Sun Devils need to find a quarterback, but they have a talented roster, an elite coach, and a schedule with massive upside. Find a way to win two of three at Texas Tech, BYU, and Texas A&M, and suddenly it’s possible. We’ve seen far crazier things from Kenny Dillingham’s program—just two years ago, in fact.

The 2024 Sun Devils are worth remembering here. They had Texas dead to rights in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal, proving the Big 12 is absolutely capable of producing a team that can beat another Power Four opponent in the playoff. This doesn’t have to be just a Group of Five win.

2. The Big 12 Will Win One of Its Three Key Non-Conference Games

This is a bolder statement than predicting the league to win a playoff game. 

The three games:

Sept. 12 – #2 Oregon (-18.5) at Oklahoma State – 11:00 AM

Sept. 12 – Arizona State at #8 Texas A&M (-14.5) – 11:00 AM

Oct. 17 – #4 Notre Dame (-10) at #14 BYU – TBD

Winning one of these games means a double-digit underdog (at least as of right now) will pull off a huge upset over a top-ten opponent. Short of winning in the playoff, this is the best thing that could happen to the Big 12.

These opportunities are becoming even harder to find. The SEC’s move to a nine-game conference schedule has already resulted in a wave of canceled future series, including Alabama and LSU dropping games against Big 12 opponents.

Five Big Ten schools won’t even play a single Power Four non-conference opponent this year.

The Big 12 needs to capitalize. Even better would be watching whichever team pulls off the upset parlay it into a spot in the College Football Playoff.

BYU is the most likely team on this list to do that. It would be wild to see Oregon, a team many say is the most talented in the country, drop a game to a Big 12 team that hasn’t won a conference game in two years, but I still think there’s more upside with a Cougars win. 

Is it wishful thinking to believe the league finally gets over the hump in one of these three games? Perhaps. But it’s August, and the optimism is flowing through me.

3. One of the New Coaches Will Be a Breakout Success

The Big 12 lost an absurd amount of coaching firepower in the blink of an eye last year. Kyle Whittingham, Mike Gundy, Matt Campbell, and Chris Klieman are all gone.

But I’m betting one of Morgan Scalley, Eric Morris, Jimmy Rogers, or Collin Klein explodes onto the scene.

The bar for “breakout success” is different based on what each coach inherited. Scalley and Klein need to hit 10 wins, Morris can get there with eight, and I’ll set the bar at seven for Rogers. 

Scalley will start the season in the top 25 and inherits the healthiest program of the four. Returning QBs Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, along with star running back Wayshawn Parker, give him a great offensive nucleus. And you have to assume Scalley will field a good-to-great defense.

The key for Klein will be unlocking Avery Johnson’s tantalizing potential. There are enough holes on defense that K-State may need to win shootouts this year. After watching what Klein did with Texas A&M QB Marcell Reed last season, there should be plenty of optimism.

Morris is the trendiest pick of the four, thanks to an elite transfer portal class headlined by sought-after QB Drew Mestemaker. The question is whether Oklahoma State’s defense is far enough along.

Matt Campbell gutted Iowa State’s roster on his way out the door, making Rogers’ rebuild in Ames by far the toughest of the four.

4. Someone From the Bottom Half of the League Will Shock Everyone

For this exercise, my bottom-half candidates are Kansas, Colorado, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, UCF, and Cincinnati.

Is there another 2024 Arizona State hiding in here? Probably not. But I’m willing to bet one of these teams wins eight or more games.

I love what Rich Rod is building at West Virginia, especially after bringing RB Cam Cook with him from Jacksonville State. Kansas’ offense could also explode with the return of OC Andy Kotelnicki and the arrival of former K-State RB Dylan Edwards.

Nobody is talking about Colorado anymore. Could that actually be a nice change of pace for Deion Sanders and the Buffs? If they’re going to surprise people, this portal class will need to deliver more substance than style.

I’m not sure I see it with Baylor, but hiring DC Joe Klanderman should raise the floor of the defense, and QB DJ Lagway has as high a ceiling as any quarterback in the country.

Quarterbacks Alonza Barnett III at UCF, JC French IV at Cincinnati, and Jaylen Raynor at Iowa State all give their teams some upside, too.

5. Arizona Will Make Us All Look Stupid

Arizona deserves far more attention based on what the Wildcats have coming back. And to be clear: I’m guilty of overlooking them, too.

The nine-win Wildcats return the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback and their entire coaching staff after a breakthrough second season under Brent Brennan.

Arizona was flying under everyone’s radar at 4-3 midway through last season before ripping off five straight wins to close the year. That’s a big part of why they remain undervalued now.

The other reason for skepticism is obvious: Arizona lost four NFL defensive backs. The Wildcats will need another Broyles Award semifinalist-caliber season from DC Danny Gonzales to compete near the top of the Big 12.

QB Noah Fifita is perfectly capable of outscoring opponents and could emerge as a dark-horse Heisman candidate. And it’s impossible not to root for a guy who has stuck it out for five years at one school in this day and age.

Reply to this email with your boldest Big 12 prediction for this season. 

What You Need to Know

• The Big 12 has four teams ranked in the first AP Top 25 poll of the season. 

• Here is a first look at the Big 12 Monster Energy patches for the upcoming football season. 

• This column from Dick Harmon of the Deseret News gives great insight into the friction between Kalani Sitake and BYU right now. 

• Here is a sobering look at the financial gap between Big Ten and SEC rosters and Big 12 and ACC rosters. 

• Hear more about my Big 12 bold predictions in my latest YouTube video.

• Want your Big 12 news and analysis in podcast form? Listen to Open For Business at the gym, in your car, or first thing in the morning on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube.

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