Wild Weekend On Tap?

Last week was all about Iowa State and BYU on upset alert. The Cyclones are off this week, but the Cougars are a road underdog in Orlando. Will that set the stage for a wild week?

We have six games with single-digit point spreads and a rivalry game on Saturday, so the conditions are certainly there for surprises. 

Make sure you’re ready with our week nine primer!

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Week Nine Primer

I’ll be previewing games every week based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest. 

Here’s your week nine primer! All times listed are Central Time (CST)

Five Yormarks

Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1) at Colorado (5-2, 3-1)
Line: Colorado -5

Who had Cincinnati at Colorado circled as the week nine game of the week this summer?

It points to the incredible job that Scott Satterfield and Coach Prime have done this year. They’re both in Big 12 Coach of the Year contention.

The Bearcats’ five wins haven’t come against a murder’s row of opponents, but they also aren’t far from being unbeaten right now – losses to Pitt and Texas Tech have come by a combined four points.

“If you match up statistically, we’re kind of right there with one another,” Coach Prime said about Cincy. “I like what they’re doing. They’re not flashy, it’s not a sexy thing, but they get the job done.”

The Buffs have one of the top ten passing attacks in the country by the numbers, and it becomes nearly impossible to stop when they run the ball as well as they did at Arizona.

Running back Isaiah Augustave provided a spark that led to 155 yards and 4.4 yards per carry, more than enough to supplement quarterback Shedeur Sanders slinging it all over the yard. The Bearcats are 14^th in the Big 12 against the run, so keep your eye on who wins the line of scrimmage.

Two-way star Travis Hunter should be back to 100% for the first time in almost three weeks but don’t just take my word for it.

While Colorado has more star power, don’t sleep on Cincy’s one-two punch of quarterback Brendan Sorsby and running back Corey Kiner. Sorsby is only behind Sanders and TCU’s Josh Hoover in the league in passing.

After this one, one team will stay in the thick of the Big 12 title race.

4 Yormarks

#11 BYU (7-0, 4-0) at UCF (3-4, 1-3) – 2:30 ESPN
Line: UCF -2 

As fun as this run has been for BYU, there is a healthy amount of Cougar disrespect out there, too.

Look no further than the betting line on this game. 7-0 BYU is an underdog at 3-4 UCF. While it is a bit of a head-scratcher, the computer rankings can probably offer the best explanation.

Kelley Ford has one of the best models around and currently has BYU power rated 26^th in the country. Before you fire up an angry email campaign, realize that Ford also has a “most deserving” ranking, which is much more like what the AP poll would (or should) be. The Cougars are fourth there, only trailing Georgia, Miami, and Oregon.

Basically, the computers think that BYU has far outperformed the sum of its parts. Its resume is much better than the talent level of its roster.

On that note, Parker Fleming’s net success rate graph shows that BYU was actually dominated by Oklahoma State last week in success rate but still found a way to win the game.

UCF has dealt with many problems this year, but the Knights did have undefeated Iowa State dead-to-rights in Ames last week. New starting quarterback Jacurri Brown gashed a great Cyclones defense on the ground, and running back RJ Harvey returned to dominating form after a three-game hiatus.

If Brown has unlocked UCF’s rushing attack again, I think this is a tough spot for the Cougars. The Bounce House isn’t generally an easy place to play – even if Colorado made it look like that a couple of weeks ago.

The line for this game reminds me of Oklahoma State at UCF last year. The 7-2 Cowboys were only a 2.5-point favorite in Orlando against the 4-5 Golden Knights.

 UCF won 45-3.

I certainly don’t think we’ll see anything quite like that, but Cougars fans should be leery of this one.

Kansas (2-5, 1-3) at #16 K-State (6-1, 3-1) – 7:00 ESPN2
Line: KSU -10

I can understand doing a double take at this game making it into the “four Yormark” category.

Kansas is 2-5 and went 51 days between wins before knocking off Houston last Saturday. They’re taking on a K-State team on a roll, having won three straight, including two in a row in tough road environments.

K-State has been dominant at home. Their three wins in Manhattan have come by an average of 27 points per game.

And then there’s the streak. Kansas has lost 15 straight to their in-state rivals. When Mark Mangino beat Ron Prince in November 2008, we didn’t have iPads, 4G Networks, Instagram, Snapchat, or Uber.

 So, it should be a cakewalk, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Kansas is clearly better than its 2-5 record. The Jayhawks had fourth-quarter leads in losses to UNLV, Illinois, West Virginia, and Arizona State and just blasted Houston 42-14 at Arrowhead. The UNLV and Illinois losses have aged well. The Rebels are one of the best group of five teams in the country, and Illinois is in the top 20.

The primary issue early in the season was the offense, but that unit has been much better over the last two games. They’ve scored 71 points and haven’t turned the ball over once.

Quarterback Jalon Daniels took plenty of heat during the first five weeks of the season, but he’s starting to look like September 2022 JD6 again after putting up 507 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions against Houston and ASU.

This is a kitchen sink kind of game for the Jayhawks. They’ll throw everything they have at K-State to try to salvage a part of their season.

The Wildcats will be very tough to beat at home, especially now that Avery Johnson’s arm has made them far less one-dimensional offensively. The atmosphere at Bill Snyder Family Stadium should rival the electricity we saw for the Friday night game against Arizona in September.

But I expect Kansas to be very competitive in a game that will more closely resemble what we expected from these two teams in August.

3 Yormarks

Texas Tech (5-2, 3-1) at TCU (4-3, 2-2) – 2:30 Fox
Line: TCU -6.5

Defense continues to be the Achilles heel for the Red Raiders. Just when they were in position to push for a spot in the Big 12 title game, they let free-falling Baylor drop 59 points in Lubbock. 

It was the third time in Tech’s last nine games that their defense gave up 50+, and only one Big 12 defense has allowed more explosive plays than the Red Raiders have this season (68). 

TCU is capable of being the next in line to gash the Tech defense. They have arguably the league’s best passing attack, featuring quarterback Josh Hoover, who leads all Big 12 quarterbacks with 324 passing yards per game. 

But the last two weeks have been pretty ugly. Only 32 combined points and more turnovers than touchdowns. 

There’s still plenty on the line for the Red Raiders. At 3-1 in the Big 12, they’re mathematically in the thick of the race. It’s just hard to see them improving the defense and special teams enough to stay in it through late November – especially with games against Iowa State and Colorado still on the schedule. 

Most importantly, though, the winner of this game gets a saddle. 

West Virginia (3-4, 2-2) at Arizona (3-4, 1-3) – 6:00 FS1
Line: Arizona -3.5

West Virginia head coach Neal Brown and Arizona head coach Brent Brennan desperately need a win to calm down angry fan bases for a week. 

The Wildcats have lost three straight after getting suffocated by Colorado. Brennan hasn’t come close to recapturing the magic that last year’s Arizona offense had, even with quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan back. 

It feels like Fifita is pressing, and Fox analyst Brock Huard said as much on the broadcast last week. He already has a league-high ten interceptions. In fairness, he’s not getting much help from his offensive line, either. 

Three Arizona opponents this year have generated a pressure rate of 40% or higher against an injury-riddled line. That didn’t happen the entire regular season last year.

The Mountaineers have only lost two straight, but they were double-digit home losses to K-State and Iowa State. There’s no shame in losing to good teams, but Brown is now 0-4 in those opportunities this year. Only the Pitt game was even close. 

WVU may be without starting quarterback Garrett Greene and star offensive lineman Wyatt Millum on Saturday. Neither player made it to the second half a week ago. Those would be critical blows to an offense that mustered just eight second-half points without them. 

Utah (4-3, 1-3) at Houston (2-5, 1-3) – 6:00 ESPN+
Line: Utah -3.5

This game isn't for you if you became a Big 12 fan in the era of high-flying offenses. 

Houston and Utah are the league’s two worst offenses in yards per game and points per drive. Maybe a change at offensive coordinator can help the Utes salvage what’s left of the season?

This will be the first game as the interim offensive coordinator for former analyst/quarterbacks coach Mike Bajakian. It’s hard to argue that now departed OC Andy Ludwig was getting the job done, but it’s also hard to argue that Bajakian was successful during his last Power Four stint. 

Houston continues to flip-flop quarterbacks. Donovan Smith got the lion’s share of snaps in the loss at Kansas, while Zeon Chriss had a breakout game two weeks ago in Ft. Worth. Neither seems likely to produce consistent results for the Cougars right now. 

File this under “must win” for Utah to have any chance at recovering a season that at least borders on acceptable to Utes fans.

2 Yormarks

Oklahoma State (3-4, 0-4) at Baylor (3-4, 1-3) – 2:30 ESPN+
Line: Baylor -7

How, exactly, did we get to the point where Oklahoma State is a seven-point underdog at 3-4 Baylor? Baylor has won only four of its last 17 FBS games, and the Cowboys just played for a Big 12 title last year. 

That’s as good an indicator as any of how this season has gone for OSU head coach Mike Gundy. His team is 0-4 in conference play for the first time since his first season in 2005.

Give the Pokes credit for the scare they put into BYU last Friday. They had the Cougars dead to rights before a miraculous final drive. But backup quarterback Garrett Rangel provided much of the spark for OSU in Provo, and he’s now out for the season. Injuries are piling up in key spots for the Pokes. 

Baylor also gave us a shocking performance last week, and the Bears did more than just finish the job. After dropping 59 in Lubbock last week behind quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s five touchdowns, can Baylor keep it going and give head coach Dave Aranda a fighting chance at keeping his job? 

We’ll see how the Bears handle being a favorite.

1 Yormark

None

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