Big 12 At-Large Playoff Bid?

Last year, BYU was criminally disrespected in the College Football Playoff at-large discussion.

The Cougars finished 17th despite having an objectively better resume than #13 Miami, who was considered the last team out. BYU had a better strength of schedule, a better strength of record, more ranked wins, and the highest-ranked individual win between the two teams.

That wasn’t a good sign for how the Big 12 might be treated going forward, and that was before SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey launched his relentless crusade for even more preferential treatment from the selection committee.

Despite Arizona State’s heroic playoff performance, coming one play short of upsetting SEC runner-up Texas in the quarterfinals, the Big 12 didn’t gain much national respect.

With a potential 5+11 College Football Playoff format on the horizon, it’s critical for the league to boost its stock by sending multiple teams into the field this year.

Can the Big 12 get it done?

It’s certainly more likely than last season, but the league must avoid the single biggest flaw of 2024: nobody with high preseason expectations delivered.

Last year, the Big 12’s perception battle began the moment Oklahoma State and Utah started flailing. Both teams had built up plenty of equity from consistent success over the last two decades. 

Right or wrong, that equity provides some benefit of the doubt in playoff discussions, something BYU (and even Arizona State, had they not won the league) didn’t have.

It also didn’t help that Arizona State, picked to finish last, won the conference. The perception was that if a supposedly less-talented team could win the league, the Big 12 must not have been very good.

I don’t see the Big 12 running into that same issue this season, but then again, I didn’t anticipate it at this time last year either.

Here are the teams I believe currently have enough built-in credibility to mount a compelling at-large playoff case:

(Note: There are obviously countless scenarios that could play out. This is a general overview rather than a scenario-by-scenario breakdown.)

Arizona State

Yes, the Sun Devils only have one recent season of major success. But expectations are high after last year’s near-upset of Texas, and many preseason rankings have ASU in the top 15. That’s enough juice to be in contention by late November.

Utah

It’s been a rough couple of seasons for future College Football Hall of Famer Kyle Whittingham, but his resume, including consecutive Rose Bowl appearances just three years ago, still commands national respect.

K-State

Chris Klieman has won nine or more games in three straight seasons. Ever since the Wildcats captured the Big 12 title in 2022, they’ve been firmly on the national radar. K-State once again heads into the season ranked in the preseason top 25.

Iowa State

I’m still scarred by Paul Finebaum’s dismissive comments from a few years ago, and that Big 12 championship blowout remains fresh in my memory. But last year’s 11-win season should’ve silenced most doubters and solidified ISU’s credibility.

TCU

Just three seasons ago, TCU beat Michigan in the College Football Playoff semifinals. The Horned Frogs are no stranger to the national stage in New Year’s Six bowls and have the league’s most talented roster according to the 247 Sports talent composite.

Colorado

Let’s be real: if Colorado is anywhere near playoff contention, they’re automatically part of the conversation. There’s simply too much casual fan interest. Even if the Buffs are picked middle-of-the-pack, a 10-2 season puts them squarely in the mix.

Texas Tech

We’ve all seen how recruiting rankings influence playoff discussions, particularly in SEC country. If Tech reaches ten wins, the Red Raiders will absolutely be considered because of its transfer portal haul.

Baylor

Dave Aranda’s 2021 Big 12 championship and Sugar Bowl win feel distant now, but Baylor still has credibility thanks to six double-digit win seasons over the last 15 years. The 2024 Bears are still hovering around “dark horse contender,” which is enough to stay in the conversation.

Two teams that might face tougher roads:

BYU 

BYU was so unfairly treated last year that it’s tough to be confident in how they’d fare this year. Plus, if the Cougars are playing without Jake Retzlaff, there could be assumptions about their quality. A 10-win BYU team without their starting quarterback might suffer the same perception issues that plagued the Big 12 last year. Hopefully, I’m overthinking it.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have plenty of built-up program equity, but last year’s collapse was brutal. There’s very little national buzz right now. However, if OSU wins at Oregon in week two, perceptions will change dramatically.

If any other Big 12 team surprises and contends for a playoff spot, I worry they’ll face similar disrespect to what BYU encountered last year, but I’d love to be proven wrong.

What You Need to Know

• Which Big 12 team has the best odds to make the College Football Playoff this year? Here’s what one major sports book thinks. 

• BYU might land a 5-star quarterback this week. 2026 prospect Ryder Lyons is expected to announce his destination on Tuesday, with BYU and Oregon as the presumed finalists. It looks like he had a fun time on the visit to Provo this weekend. 

• Only one Big 12 coach made Athlon’s list of coaches who could win their first national title in 2025. Check out the full list here. 

• Which team will Big 12 fans hate the most during the 2025 season? I have the definitive top five list for you right here. 

• K-State and Iowa State made the latest trailer for the NCAA ‘26 video game. You can check out a sneak peek of the Farmageddon gameplay here. 

• Want to see some scorching hot takes about the Big 12? Check out this thread, and make sure to send me your hottest take for the upcoming season!

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