Who Benefits From Big 12 Tiebreakers?

We’re heading into the stretch run of the Big 12 season, and that means it’s time to prepare for one thing that is sure to make at least one fan base furious by the end of the year: tiebreakers. 

One consequence of having 16—and 18-team conferences is unbalanced schedules and wild tiebreaker scenarios. Long gone are the days of the Big 12 having “one true champion” who played every team in the league. 

Let’s look at a scenario I’ve been asked about often. What happens if K-State wins out and beats Iowa State, Iowa State wins every game except Farmageddon, and BYU drops one regular season game?

At the end of the regular season, all three teams would be 11-1 (8-1). 

I’ll be using the Big 12 tiebreakers to sort it all out. 

The first tiebreaker is easy. If one team beats the other two, it gets the top seed. We don’t have that scenario here because BYU and Iowa State didn’t play. 

Now, we move to this:

The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

The only two common conference opponents we have between the three are Houston and Kansas. As long as none of the three lost to either one of those teams, we move on to the next tiebreaker. 

Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. 

That would be either Houston or Kansas (whoever finishes higher), which does us no good in this scenario. That means we get to the next tiebreaker, which would, in all likelihood, be the one to break any tie between the top four teams. 

Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)

This is where the rubber meets the road. We have to compare the winning percentage of the teams BYU, Iowa State, and K-State played in their Big 12 schedule. Here’s where they sit right now:

KSU – 53% (24-21)
ISU – 44% (20-25)
BYU – 32% (14-30)

In this scenario, K-State and Iowa State would be the two teams going to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship game. 

If Colorado is also involved, here’s how the Buffs conference winning percentage stacks up. 

KSU – 53% (24-21)
ISU – 44% (20-25)
Colorado 35% (16-29)
BYU – 32% (14-30)

If there were a four-way tie between those teams, it would still be a K-State-Iowa State rematch for the Big 12 title. 

The main takeaways are that BYU and Colorado would be in a tough spot if there’s a three- or four-team tie, and a second Farmageddon match-up is a pretty realistic possibility based on where things stand right now. 

Plenty can change between now and then. I’ll continue to monitor the situation and how tiebreakers will play a role.

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Week Ten Primer

I’ll be previewing games every week based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest. 

Here’s your week ten primer! All times listed are Central Time (CST)

Five Yormarks

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4 Yormarks

Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2) at #11 Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) – 2:30 ESPN
Line: ISU -13.5

Much of the intrigue here comes from what happened when we last saw Iowa State. 3-5 UCF had Iowa State dead to rights in Ames before a heroic last-minute touchdown drive from the Cyclones. 

Texas Tech has its issues, but the Red Raiders are better than the Golden Knights. Will they be able to push Iowa State in the same way with the Clones coming off of a bye week?

Tech got some good news in the form of quarterback Behren Morton. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports that Morton will start on Saturday despite an injury to his non-throwing shoulder suffered against TCU. Morton is having a career year, averaging 258 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. 

Iowa State has been dealing with injuries all season. The linebacker room has been hit the hardest, and head coach Matt Campbell seems optimistic that they could get some help back before the season ends. A bye week certainly helped with their health issues overall.

“A week off was such a pivotal time for our football team,” Campbell said. “We’ll probably be as close to as strong as we’ve been since probably starting the Arkansas State game.”

This game pits the top scoring offense in the league (Tech) against the best scoring defense (Iowa State). If Tech really gets a healthy Morton to go along with Tahj Brooks, the Big 12 leader in rushing yards per game, Cyclone defensive coordinator Jon Heacock may have his hands full. 

TCU (5-3, 3-2) at Baylor (4-4, 2-3) – 7:00 ESPN2
Line: Baylor -3

This is the most intriguing matchup of the week to me. Both teams have momentum after back-to-back wins. One team still has an outside shot at playing for a Big 12 championship. 

Baylor has new life after an offensive explosion in the last two weeks, dropping almost 100 combined points on Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Yes, those are the two worst defenses in the conference, but the Bears needed some confidence in the worst way, and they got it. 

Their three conference losses don’t look so bad, either. Baylor gave up a Hail Mary to lose at Colorado, had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter against BYU, and led Iowa State by double digits in the first half. 

If you haven’t watched Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson yet, you should. He’s playing like a top-tier Big 12 QB and leads the league with 19 total touchdowns in conference play. 

TCU quarterback Josh Hoover can be equally entertaining to watch, but that’s not always good for the Horned Frogs. Nobody in the league can top his 2,614 yards passing, but he also has four games with multiple interceptions. 

Turnovers are largely why the Frogs' resume is so erratic, including getting thumped 30-19 at home by Houston. 

There’s no shortage of weapons for Hoover to utilize. Jack Bech and Savion Williams are an outstanding combination in the receiving corps, especially with Williams getting carries now. The key will be taking care of the football, as always.

History favors the Frogs, who have won eight of the last nine in the series. A win for Baylor head coach Dave Aranda would give him his first win over TCU and his first three-game winning streak since 2022.

3 Yormarks

Arizona State (5-2, 2-2) at Oklahoma State (3-5, 0-5) – 6:00 FS1
Line: ASU -3

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy wanted his team to spend the week soul-searching. Star running back Ollie Gordon spent the week answering questions about whether he’s considered bailing on the rest of the season to prepare for the NFL draft. That’s how things are going in Stillwater. 

Shout out to Gordon for his answer to those questions, by the way. I’m all for the players doing what’s best for them, but it’s refreshing to hear a player respond that way in 2024. 

The Cowboys sport a bottom-four offense and defense in the league. While bowl eligibility is still on the table, even a season-ending run won’t be enough to truly satisfy anybody associated with OSU’s proud program. 

While these teams are meeting for the first time as Big 12 foes, there’s a revenge factor at play. OSU knocked off Arizona State in Tempe last year 27-15, a game that Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo remembers well. 

Skattebo makes the ASU offense go. He’s one of the best backs in a league loaded with talent at the position. But he can’t do it alone. 

Thankfully, it looks like Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt will make his return from a rib injury in Stillwater. Leavitt missed the Sun Devils’ loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago. 

A win for Arizona State will send the Sun Devils to a bowl game in head coach Kenny Dillingham’s second season – an accomplishment that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Dillingham inherited a total mess and has done Yeoman’s work to turn the program around. 

#17 K-State (7-1, 4-1) at Houston (3-5, 2-3) – 2:30 Fox
Line: K-State -13.5

How much energy will K-State bring to the table for this game?

The Wildcats are coming off of an emotionally exhausting win over arch-rival Kansas and have a bye week to look forward to after Saturday. Playing one of the bottom teams in the league in front of a sparse crowd in bad weather isn’t exactly a recipe for an inspired effort. 

K-State has its sights set on a Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff appearance, but they’ll likely need to win out to make it happen. 

The good news is they should be heavy favorites against Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati before a showdown at Iowa State. The bad news is there’s almost no margin for error. 

While it’s been an up-and-down first year for Houston head coach Willie Fritz, the Cougars have surprising wins over TCU and, most recently, Utah on their resume. 

They hang their hat on a top-six defense in the Big 12. Offense is a struggle, though. Nobody has scored less on conference opponents than the Cougars, and only one team in the country has fewer trips to the red zone. 

Houston has won two of three since switching to Zeon Chriss at quarterback. Chriss was limited to just 11 snaps in the loss to Kansas because of a hamstring injury. When he’s played, the Cougars have been better. 

K-State is much better than TCU or Utah, but Houston can put a scare into the Wildcats if they don’t bring it. Just ask Iowa State, who only led the Cougars 3-0 until the waning moments of the third quarter.

2 Yormarks

Arizona (3-5, 1-4) at UCF (3-5, 1-4) – 2:30 FS1
Line: UCF -6

It’s been a rough year for these two. UCF and Arizona have lost a combined nine games in a row, and neither team won a game in October. 

That generally means changes are coming. They’ve already started for UCF head coach Gus Malzahn, who fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof and handed over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach Tim Harris Jr. 

Roof was a dubious hire this offseason and only made it seven games. The Knights’ defense gave up 37+ points in three of the five straight losses. 

Malzahn says ditching playcalling will give him more time to focus on all three phases of the game, but he didn’t commit to which quarterback will start this game. Dylan Rizk replaced Jacurri Brown late in the BYU game last week. 

This game will feature two of the best skill position players in the league: UCF running back RJ Harvey and Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan torched West Virginia last week with ten catches for 202 yards, and Harvey had 127 yards and two touchdowns against BYU. Both players deserve better from their supporting cast. 

Amazingly, this will be Arizona’s first football game in the Eastern time zone since a 1999 trip to Penn State.

1 Yormark

None

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