Two Big 12 Playoff Teams?

July was filled with buzz about Florida State and Clemson. After months of boring lawsuit discussions, we seemed poised to get some real action before the season started. 

Big 12 fans even had more reason to pay attention after Brett McMurphy, Josh Pate, and Ross Dellenger speculated about the odds of Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark landing the ACC power brands. 

Unfortunately, the ACC withdrawal notification deadline came and went on Thursday without any action. So, hold off on any plans to watch Big 12 football in Tallahassee next season. 

Could the Big 12 land two currently unranked teams in the College Football Playoff? The data (and On3’s Andy Staples) actually says yes. 

And you turned up the heat on your Big 12 hot takes this week! We’ve got everything from Utah slander to Willie Fritz love.

What You Need to Know

• It’ll be a minute before Florida State and Clemson find a new home, whether that’s the Big 12 or not. Thursday, August 15th, was the ACC’s deadline for Florida State and Clemson to notify the league that they plan to leave before the 2025-26 season, and it came and went without a peep. That’s consistent with ESPN’s Pete Thamel reporting in late July that the expectation was that nothing would happen. 

• UCF and West Virginia in the College Football Playoff?? It could happen, says On3’s Andy Staples – and that’s not just his opinion. It’s based on real data from Ralph Russo of the Associated Press. 

• A whopping 75% of the Big 12’s starting quarterbacks made the preseason watch list for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, given to the top upperclassmen QB in the country. There will be fierce competition for 1st Team All-Big 12 honors – this list doesn’t even include K-State standout Avery Johnson. 

• Oklahoma State has sold out of all season and single-game tickets for the home slate at Boone Pickens Stadium this year. It’s the first time in school history that has happened before kickoff of the opening game. I guess Oklahoma and Texas weren’t the only things keeping Cowboys fans engaged, huh?

• We have a kick time for TCU-SMU on September 21st. The Battle for the Iron Skillet will start at 4:00 on The CW. Yes, that CW. More bragging rights than usual are on the line in this one after a noisy offseason from SMU fans who are suddenly full of ACC pride. 

• The money is still flowing in Lubbock. Texas Tech landed a $5 million gift to the Jones AT&T Stadium and Womble Football Center projects. It comes on the heels of headlines about the Red Raiders paying a staggering $1.05 million to Stanford softball star NiJaree Canady.

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Your Hottest Big 12 Takes

Here’s your chance to weigh in! Respond to this email with your hottest take for the 2024 Big 12 season, and I may react to it in the next newsletter. 

This week, we have some takes from the email mailbag and some from Twitter.  

From Open For Business subscriber Scott:

“Big 12 lands two teams in the first year of the college football playoffs.”

Unfortunately for the Big 12, this is a pretty hot take. We have ten years of history to show us how much brand power drives college football playoff selections, and that problem is only likely to get worse with a widening gap between the Big Ten/SEC and everyone else. 

You’re more likely to see five SEC teams in the field than two Big 12 teams. 

If the Big 12 replicates what happened in 2022 when TCU lost an overtime heartbreaker to K-State in the Big 12 title game after putting together a magical, unbeaten regular season, then maybe the league could get two teams in. Maybe. 

For the record, I think it’s ridiculous, but that’s what it would likely take. I’m a realist and have zero trust in the playoff selection committee to give any benefit of the doubt to the Big 12. 

From Open For Business subscriber Neil:

Houston finishes in the top half of the league, with Willie Fritz leveraging the talent already there.

I love Willie Fritz. First of all, he’s a fellow native Kansas Citian. He’s also a stud of a head coach. 

He’s won virtually every level: junior college, MIAA, FCS, and FBS. Now he finally gets a Power Four chance. 

I think he’s going to make the most of it. I loved when he told me at Big 12 Media Days that he embraces all of the changes in the sport – even in his 60s. 

I just don’t think Dana Holgorsen left enough in the cupboard for Fritz to make that happen in year one. 

I’m not sure this qualifies as a hot take. A healthy, September 2022-esque Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, arguably the Big 12’s best receiving corps, a very manageable schedule, and a tier-one head coach is absolutely a Big 12 title contender. 

The problem, of course, is health. If it weren’t for averaging six games played over the last three years, I think you’d see many more people picking them to make the title game.  

This is scorching hot. Ryan is correct to say teams changing conferences typically have some growing pains, but this is a unique scenario.

A veteran head coach like Kyle Whittingham and a seventh-year quarterback should mitigate most of the pitfalls of moving to a new conference. 

The new scenery is enough to give me some pause about picking Utah to win the league, but if Cam Rising stays healthy, I see no way they finish outside of the top three. 

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Keep the fire burning in my inbox this week! I’ll continue sprinkling in your hottest takes until the season kicks off.