Tiebreaker Update: BYU in a Good Spot

So, I screwed up. In my breakdown of the Big 12 tiebreakers, I incorrectly determined that a three-way tie of K-State, BYU, and Iowa State at 8-1 in the Big 12 would result in a Farmageddon rematch. 

This is the key phrase that I now believe I misinterpreted:

After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple team tiebreaker will repeat the tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

I now believe that scenario would produce a K-State-BYU rematch. 

If you want to follow along, you can do so with the Big 12 tiebreakers here. 

I have contacted the Big 12 to confirm this but haven’t heard back yet, so I suppose you should take this with a grain of salt. Either way, I wanted to get this out to you as soon as possible. I’ll keep you posted on what I hear from the league.

BYU fans, please take this as a token of my appreciation and acknowledgment of my screw-up. 

If BYU, K-State, and Iowa State are all tied at 8-1 in the conference, here’s how the tiebreaker goes. 

The first tiebreaker is easy. If one team beats the other two, it gets the top seed. We don’t have that scenario here because BYU and Iowa State didn’t play. 

Now, we move to this:

The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

The only two common conference opponents we have between the three are Houston and Kansas. As long as none of the three lost to either one of those teams, we move on to the next tiebreaker. 

Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. 

That would be Houston or Kansas (whoever finishes higher), which does us no good in this scenario. That means we get to the next tiebreaker, which would, in all likelihood, be the one to break any tie between the top three teams. 

Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)

This is where the rubber meets the road. We have to compare the winning percentage of the teams BYU, Iowa State, and K-State played in their Big 12 schedule. Here’s where they sit right now:

KSU – 53% (24-21)
ISU – 44% (20-25)
BYU – 32% (14-30)

Here is where I made my mistake initially. K-State wins this tiebreaker and advances to the Big 12 championship game as the #1 seed, but you only get one “winner” of the three-way tiebreaker. You remove K-State, so now it becomes a two-way tie between BYU and Iowa State. 

Step one in a two-way tie is head-to-head. Since they didn’t play each other, we move to the next tiebreaker. 

Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

The common opponents would be K-State, Houston, Baylor, UCF, Kansas, and Utah.

If BYU’s one loss is to Arizona State, they would be 6-0 against that group, and Iowa State would be 5-1. That means BYU advances to the Big 12 title game to play K-State. 

If BYU’s loss comes to Utah, Houston, or Kansas, they would both be 5-1, so we move to the next tiebreaker. 

Win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference).

The highest-placed common opponent they have is K-State. That’s good news for the Cougars. They would win the tiebreaker because in this scenario, Iowa State lost to the Wildcats. 

So, if BYU, K-State, and Iowa State all tie, we would get a K-State-BYU Big 12 championship game. 

If Colorado is also involved, here’s how the Buffs conference winning percentage stacks up. 

KSU – 53% (24-21)
ISU – 44% (20-25)
Colorado 35% (16-29)
BYU – 32% (14-30)

That means K-State gets separated from the group first and is still the #1 seed in the Big 12 title game. 

Now, we have to evaluate Colorado, BYU, and Iowa State as a three-team tie. 

Since none of those teams beat the other two, we go to record against common conference opponents. The common opponents are K-State, Baylor, UCF, Kansas, and Utah.

If BYU’s one loss was to Arizona State or Houston, they would win this tiebreaker because they would be 5-0 while the other two are 4-1. 

If BYU’s one loss were to Utah or Kansas, we would go to the next tiebreaker with everybody at 4-1 against this group. 

The Cougars would still win, with the next tiebreaker being their record against the next highest-placed common opponent. That would be K-State, who BYU beat and the other two lost to. 

In conclusion, please accept my sincerest apologies, BYU fans. In the event of an 8-1 tie between BYU and any combination of K-State, Iowa State, and Colorado, I now believe the Cougars would be in the Big 12 championship game.