I got a warning from an Open For Business subscriber this week. 

“I hope the Big 12 performs well, but best to wait until it does before touting or tooting the horns.”

It’s a fair point. Boasting about having three of the top seven seeds in the NCAA tournament won’t mean much if the Big 12 doesn’t put multiple teams in the Final Four and/or win a national championship.

I try to give you a snapshot of what’s happening right now and react to it, but that does leave me vulnerable if the league doesn’t come through.

But I’m far from the only one who’s bullish on the Big 12 right now. Check out what NBA legend and CBS analyst Charles Barkley had to say last night about Arizona.

Well said, Chuck. 

Arizona isn’t infallible, but they also don’t have an obvious weakness. The Wildcats proved in Kansas City that they could beat a two-seed while getting virtually nothing from their two most talented players, Koa Peat and Brayden Burries.

They could do that because their roster is so complete. 

Arizona has toughness and physicality in spades. The bigs can pummel you into submission, but the guards are still lethal. Even if Burries is nonexistent, Anthony Dell’Orso is capable of dropping 26 on one of the best defenses in the sport.

It’s been over a decade since the Wildcats have been beyond the Sweet Sixteen, and head coach Tommy Lloyd lost to a 15-seed three years ago in the first round, so there is a level of pressure on Arizona this time around. 

I do like the Wildcats’ draw. 

The two-seed is Purdue, which won the Big Ten tournament but lost four of its last six regular-season games. It’s been a somewhat disappointing season for the preseason No. 1 team. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers lost at home to Iowa State by 23 earlier this season.

The team I’m most leery of in their region is Arkansas. The Big 12 knows elite freshmen, and the Razorbacks’ Darius Acuff Jr is right in line with AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson. He’s capable of carrying the Hogs to the Final Four. 

Here are some quick thoughts about every other Big 12 team’s NCAA tournament draw:

Big 12 NCAA Tournament Viewing Guide
(All times Central)

Thursday

11:15 am - #8 Ohio State (-2.5) v. #9 TCU – CBS
6:25 pm - #6 BYU (-2.5) v. #11 Texas - TBS
9:10 pm - #2 Houston (-23.5) v. #15 Idaho - truTV

Friday

11:40 am - #5 Texas Tech (-7.5) v. #12 Akron - truTV
12:35 pm - #1 Arizona (-30.5) v. #16 Long Island University - TNT
1:50 pm - #2 Iowa State (-24.5) v. #15 Tennessee State - CBS
6:25 pm - #7 UCLA (-5.5) v. #10 UCF – TBS
8:45 pm - #4 Kansas (-14.5) v. #13 Cal Baptist – CBS 

#2 Seed Houston (South Region)

There are some really juicy potential storylines awaiting Houston in the South. 

First of all, if the Cougars make it to the second weekend, they’ll be able to sleep in their own beds before the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Rice is the host school for the South Regional, with the games being played at the Toyota Center in Houston.

And if Houston does advance to the Elite Eight, it could get a rematch of last year’s national title game with Florida. It would be a perfect way to exact some revenge on Gators head coach Todd Golden for preventing college hoops legend Kelvin Sampson from finally getting his natty. 

Don’t sleep on three-seed Illinois in the Sweet Sixteen, either. This isn’t Sampson’s best defensive team at Houston, but the matchup of Illinois elite offense and Houston’s trademark defense would be a lot of fun. 

#2 Seed Iowa State (Midwest Region)

While filling out my bracket, it was hard for me to see Iowa State not advancing to at least the Elite Eight. 

The Cyclones are miles better than an underachieving Kentucky team they could see in the second round, and three-seed Virginia beat up on the weak ACC all year. The Cavaliers have the worst Vegas odds of any top-three seed to win the national championship. 

Michigan had the best odds of anybody to win the title immediately after the selection show, in large part because of the perception that this region was weaker. The Cyclones get that same bracket, and we know they’re capable of beating the Wolverines after watching them go toe-to-toe with Arizona in college basketball’s game of the year last week. 

#4 Seed Kansas (East Region)

I think Kansas got the worst draw of any Big 12 team in the tournament. Many had them projected as a five-seed, so the reward for actually getting a four was being placed in the tournament’s toughest region. 

Just look at the coaches here: Dan Hurley, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, and Rick Pitino are all in the East. That’s not even mentioning Jon Scheyer and No. 1 overall seed Duke.

KU should handle Cal Baptist, but the Lancers do have one of the most exciting players in the tournament in guard Dominique Daniels Jr.

St. John’s looms as a likely round of 32 opponent, and that’s a brutal break. The Red Storm just beat UConn for the Big East tournament title, and most feel they’re underseeded. KU would have its hands full with one-time Jayhawk Zuby Ejiofor, now the Big East Player of the Year. 

It’s going to be tough to get to the second weekend for the first time since 2022, but if the Jayhawks get a healthy and locked-in Darryn Peterson, a run to the Final Four is possible.  

#5 Seed Texas Tech (Midwest Region)

Let’s start with the obvious: It’s hard to know what to expect from Texas Tech without All-American JT Toppin. 

The Red Raiders thumped Iowa State in Ames without him, but then lost three straight heading into the NCAA tournament. Plus, star guard Christian Anderson is nursing an injury thanks to the disastrous LED Big 12 tournament court.

Tech’s first opponent, 12-seed Akron, is a popular upset pick in round one, largely because of those injury issues. The Zips are also playing in their third straight NCAA tournament. 

But if Tech can get to the round of 32, Alabama is without star Aden Holloway, who was arrested this week. It’s more than doable for the Red Raiders to advance to the second weekend for the fourth time since 2019. 

#6 Seed BYU (West Region)

The sense that I got in Kansas City after talking to people close to the BYU program last week is that the Cougars feel like they’re back on track. Head coach Kevin Young had the same message at the podium after losing to Houston. 

To be honest, I think BYU has a high ceiling and a low floor in the NCAA tournament.

I could easily see BYU riding AJ Dybantsa to the second weekend. He’s that good, and I’m eager to see the damage he and the Cougars can do to a team outside of the Big 12 that hasn’t already scouted them. 

But I’m also very leery of a play-in game winner. I don’t think Texas is a great team, but 13 First Four winners have gone on to win at least one other NCAA tournament game since the field expanded in 2011.  

A round of 32 BYU-Gonzaga matchup in Portland would be a blast. Here’s to hoping we get to see it. 

#9 Seed TCU (East Region)

Just like Kansas got a tough draw in the East, the same can be said for TCU. 

If the Horned Frogs get by Ohio State in the 8/9 game, their reward will be No. 1 overall seed Duke. The good news is that TCU has proven capable of playing with elite teams this year.

In November alone, the Frogs beat one-seed Florida and pushed one-seed Michigan to the brink in a 67-63 loss. TCU later beat two-seed Iowa State in conference play, so it’s not out of the question that they could spring an upset.

Ohio State has a similar resume with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, and can score with the best of them. The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs could be one of the most entertaining first-round matchups. 

#10 Seed UCF (East Region)

UCF wasn’t sharp to close the regular season. The Knights lost three straight before rallying to hold off Cincinnati in the Big 12 tournament. It was just enough to keep them in the tournament field. 

Now, they’ll face a banged-up UCLA squad in the first round. Forward Tyler Bilodeau and guard Donovan Dent were both injured in the Big Ten tournament. Head coach Mick Cronin seems to think they’ll play, but how close will they be to 100%?

UCF should get a crack at UConn in the round of 32 if it can knock off the Bruins.

What You Need to Know

• The Big 12 put up a massive TV number for the Big 12 championship game. 

• K-State head coach Casey Alexander is moving fast in putting together his staff. 

• A former Big 12 star opens up about the hate he got last year from fans. 

• BYU welcomed an old friend to its pro day in Provo. 

• Missouri head football coach Eli Drinkwitz admits that college football is in danger if things keep going the way they are right now. 

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