Big 12 Beating Itself Up

The Big 12 played right into its stereotype again in week twelve. This wild league is cannibalizing itself to the detriment of its best-case playoff scenario. 

Kansas, a team that was 2-6 just a couple of weeks ago, went into Provo and upset BYU to end its undefeated season. The Cougars’ loss effectively ended the league’s chances of getting two teams into the College Football Playoff. 

The Big 12 may have to wait to see where Boise State finishes to find out if it will actually get a first-round bye in the playoff. The Broncos are currently 13th in the playoff rankings and 12th in the AP poll. If they finish higher than the Big 12 champion, they will earn the four seed in the College Football Playoff. That would force a Big 12 team to play a road game in the first round instead of getting a bye and a quarterfinal on a neutral field. 

There’s even a scenario in which the Big 12 (or the ACC) could get left out of the playoff entirely. There’s no guarantee that every Power Four conference champion will get into the field. The playoff invites the five highest-ranked conference champions – no matter what conference they come from. 

The wild card here is Army. The Knights are undefeated and taking on Notre Dame this week. If they somehow upset the Fighting Irish, they’ll jump up from #24 in the playoff rankings into the range of Colorado, BYU, Iowa State, and Arizona State. 

If there is more Big 12 cannibalization and the league champion has three losses, undefeated Army and Boise State could both finish higher in the playoff rankings. 

That’s a very unlikely scenario, but it is possible. Depending on what happens with SMU, Miami, and Clemson, the same could happen in the ACC.  

One thing is certain: we’re in for plenty of drama to finish the Big 12 season over the next two weeks.

Week One: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good

Arizona State’s Coming Out Party

Arizona State’s dominant win in Manhattan took the Sun Devils season from a nice story to one of the best stories in college football this year.

Before arriving at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, ASU’s seven wins were over teams without a winning record. They were more than ready for the bright lights, though, and built a 24-0 lead in front of a stunned home crowd. 

Arizona State is more than just star running back Cam Skattebo. He was solid, but Saturday night was all about the combination of quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordan Tyson. 

Tyson hauled in 12 catches for 176 yards and two touchdowns. ASU offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo’s brilliant scheme got Tyson consistently one-on-one with overmatched K-State safeties. 

Leavitt threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns while also hurting the Wildcats with his legs. He easily outplayed his class of 2023 counterpart, Avery Johnson. 

You can’t understate the job that Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has done since taking over two years ago. He inherited a three-win program dealing with NCAA sanctions from the Herm Edwards fiasco and has them barreling toward nine or ten wins in year two. 

Dillingham doesn’t have an expensive roster backed by a robust NIL collective. He and his staff out-evaluated and out-coached nearly everyone on the schedule this year. At just 34 years old with an abundance of energy, he seems like the perfect style of coach to handle the portal/NIL-era of college football. 

The best part for the Sun Devils? He’s an alum. Even if the big boys come calling, they’ll have a chance to keep him around – if they give him the resources he needs. 

ASU beat reporter Chris Karpman wrote an excellent column on the urgency for the Sun Devils to do just that. I’d highly recommend checking it out.

The Sun Devils have a legitimate shot to make the Big 12 championship game if they knock off BYU this weekend. The fact that Dillingham lured SEC-based Josh Pate to the game on Saturday is further proof that he’s done a National Coach of the Year-worthy job this season. 

Travis Hunter’s Heisman Chances

If you’re an Ashton Jeanty truther, cover your ears. This will be triggering. 

Travis Hunter further established himself as the Heisman favorite in Colorado’s 49-24 win over Utah. He played 132 snaps and added a rushing touchdown, an interception, and two dazzling highlights to a highlight reel that’s getting pretty crowded. 

Yes, he also got burned by Utah receiver Dorian Singer for a long touchdown, but that’s not what most people will remember from this game. 

Every Colorado win increases his Heisman chances even further. If they win the Big 12 title, there’s no chance Jeanty passes him to get the award – right or wrong. 

I like the novelty of what Hunter is doing here. In an age where the Heisman almost always goes to the best quarterback on a top-ten team, Hunter and Jeanty are both unique, but Hunter is far more distinct. 

Am I biased as a Big 12 fan? Probably so. But this isn’t even about my opinion; it’s about reality. If Colorado keeps winning, Hunter is going to win the award easily. He’s had a better PR campaign and entered the season with far more name recognition than Jeanty. Those things matter. 

And for all people's preconceived notions about Hunter, his teammates, and star players in the portal era, can’t we all appreciate a guy who says things like this after a 25-point win?

Dave Aranda’s Bounce Back

I don’t think anybody in the Big 12 wants to play Baylor right now. 

The Bears' electric offense powered them to a fourth straight win in Morgantown. During the winning streak, they’ve averaged a staggering 45 points per game, and the offense is now number two in scoring and total yards in conference games. 

Junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson is the catalyst. He now has 20 touchdown passes to just four interceptions on the season. Not bad for a guy who started the year as Dequan Finn’s backup. 

Baylor AD Mack Rhoades decided to remove all doubt this weekend and announce that head coach Dave Aranda will return in 2025. 

Nearly everybody left Aranda for dead after the Hail Mary loss at Colorado. Aranda’s admission that the final defensive call was named “victory cigar” got him mocked ruthlessly by the internet. 

It was easy to pounce on a coach who was 25-29 overall at Baylor after the loss and only 6-15 in the Big 12 in the two-and-a-half post-Big 12 championship seasons.

Nobody is laughing now that Aranda has a legitimate chance to finish 8-4 and bring back one of the best quarterback and running back duos in the league.

The Bad

BYU Finally Gets Burned

Everybody knows if you play with fire, you will eventually get burned. BYU found that out the hard way on Saturday. 

After barely surviving inferior Utah and Oklahoma State teams over the last month, the Cougars found themselves in a dogfight with 3-6 Kansas. This time, the break didn’t go their way. 

Kansas scored the game-winning touchdown after a flukey pooch punt that hit a BYU player in the helmet. It was undoubtedly a lucky break for the Jayhawks, but that seemed like a perfect way for karma to even the score for both sides. 

KU has spent the entire season lamenting all the ways they’ve found to lose games in the fourth quarter. Five times, they’ve blown leads in the final fifteen minutes. 

Meanwhile, BYU needed a late Utah penalty (a correct call, by the way) to survive a horrible offensive performance last week. They also took advantage of Oklahoma State's mind-numbingly bad defense on a miraculous final-minute touchdown drive. 

The Cougars simply have to be better offensively if they want to win a Big 12 championship. Four trips inside the Kansas red zone netted only six points. That’s not going to get it done. 

The game was lost when BYU scored only three points on back-to-back long drives that bookended halftime. 

Everything is still in front of the Cougars. If they win out, they’ll be in the Big 12 championship game, but it’s hard to see them running the table unless the offense finds a different gear. 

Meanwhile, a suddenly resurgent Kansas team can do further harm to the Big 12 by beating Colorado at Arrowhead this week. The Buffaloes are only three-point favorites, and rightfully so. KU looks like the Big 12 title contender most expected heading into the season.

Counting Matt Campbell Out

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Iowa State started slow on Saturday night. 

In typical Cyclones fashion, it took a little while for the team to get rolling, but eventually, they did in a critical 34-17 win over Cincinnati to get their season back on track after a two-game losing streak. 

Head coach Matt Campbell even pulled the trigger on a gem of a fake punt to get his team going in the second half. 

Any chance at an at-large playoff spot is likely out the window, and Iowa State will need some help to get to the Big 12 championship game, but they stayed in the fight. They also kept the chance for the first ten-win season in school history alive. 

The defense mostly returned to form after its worst game of the season against Kansas last week. It helped to get linebacker Will McLaughlin back at the position most decimated by injuries on the roster. 

The Cyclones matchup with Utah this week features arguably the two most injury-riddled teams in the league. Iowa State needs to take care of its business and root hard for Kansas and Arizona State to muddy up the Big 12 title picture.

The Ugly

K-State’s Implosion

K-State’s season has tanked in a hurry. 

As bad as the loss at Houston looked a couple of weeks ago, falling behind 24-0 to Arizona State in front of a sold-out Bill Snyder Family Stadium crowd looked worse. 

K-State quarterback Avery Johnson threw an interception on the second play of the game. His receivers dropped three passes and killed a drive with a lost fumble. The Wildcats special teams unit botched two snaps on field goal attempts that cost them six points. It was the second game in a row where K-State had two bad snaps and used two different long snappers. 

Even injuries were a problem. Key offensive contributors Dylan Edwards and Keagan Johnson got hurt and missed most or all of the game.

The vibes after it was over weren’t great, either. But they took on a different tone than the anger and frustration of the fans in the stadium. 

Head coach Chris Klieman became very emotional during his post-game press conference. He mentioned his disappointment in letting down the team's veterans who won’t get to play in the playoff and said it had been a difficult two weeks for him personally. 

That led to speculation that Klieman may be considering retirement. He quickly dismissed that rumor at his Monday press conference. 

The Wildcats can still finish 9-3, but it’s hard to have much confidence in that considering the slide we’ve witnessed the last two weeks – particularly with the K-State offense. 

After putting up 45 points at West Virginia less than a month ago, K-State was number one in the Big 12 in points per drive. Three games later, they’re 10th. The Wildcats are missing former offensive coordinator Collin Klein badly. 

It could be a very interesting offseason in Manhattan.

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