The 2025 Big 12 Football Champion

What if I told you there's a simple formula that can predict this year's Big 12 football champion?

It sounds impossible, especially given the massive amount of parity we've seen lately in this league. After all, Arizona State just went from picked dead-last to finishing first last season.

But today, I'm borrowing a trick from Josh Pate, who’s successfully used this method to predict recent national champions, and applying it specifically to the Big 12.

The idea is straightforward: Take five 2026 NFL mock drafts, identify which school has the most projected first-round picks, and that's your champion.

Five of the last six national champions had the most first-round picks in the NFL draft immediately following their title season. Using this formula, Pate has Clemson winning the national championship this year. They averaged just over three projected first-rounders per mock draft.

Obviously, this approach is more suited to picking a national champion than a Big 12 winner. To win it all, your roster has to be stacked with NFL talent. For instance, Ohio State just had 14 players drafted. Meanwhile, Arizona State captured the Big 12 crown last season with only one drafted player—running back Cam Skattebo.

So yes, it's imperfect, but you’ve got to admit it’s a fun exercise.

I looked at five prominent 2026 mock drafts:

On3
CBS Sports
ESPN
Pro Football Focus
USA Today

The entire Big 12 averaged 2.8 projected first-round picks across all mocks. But the school clearly leading the way—and therefore your predicted 2025 Big 12 champion—is…

Utah.

In the five mock drafts, the Utes had a total of eight first-round selections, thanks entirely to their offensive line.

Offensive tackle Spencer Fano was featured in all five mock drafts, going as high as No. 3 overall. Fellow OT Caleb Lomu appeared in three mocks himself.

Here’s how the total projected first-rounders broke down by team:

• Utah: 8

• Arizona State: 2

• Colorado: 1

• BYU: 1

• Texas Tech: 1

The biggest takeaway here is clear: Spencer Fano is the only truly surefire Big 12 first-round prospect. A lot will obviously change between now and April 2026, but projecting first-rounders is basically a crapshoot outside of Fano.

Arizona State’s QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordan Tyson were both top-ten picks in the PFF mock but didn’t appear anywhere else. Colorado DB DJ McKinney, BYU DT Keanu Tanuvasa, and Texas Tech Edge David Bailey each appeared in just one mock.

These results actually align pretty closely with how I see the top of the Big 12 this year. Four of these five schools would be in my current top six (sorry, Colorado).

Given how impossible predicting the Big 12 feels these days, maybe I should just lock these five in and call it a day.

We’ll see. I have plenty of time to decide in the doldrums of the offseason.

What You Need to Know

• Forget 14 teams. According to multiple reports, the College Football Playoff is on its way to 16 teams. Expansion to 16 is gaining steam within the Big Ten and SEC. That would still include four automatic bids for the Big Ten and SEC, two for the Big 12 and ACC, one for the Group of Five, and now three at-large spots. 

• The new 16-team proposal would also mean that conference championship games will be replaced by play-in games for the final automatic bids for each conference. For instance, in the Big 12, it would be a matchup of the second-place and third-place teams playing for the second playoff bid, while the champion gets to sit out what was formerly conference championship weekend. 

• What is the best job in the Big 12? I took a stab at answering this on my YouTube channel this week. To me, there are three Big 12 football jobs that are clearly above the rest. I also took your responses on Twitter, and they were all over the board. 

• Baylor added to its defensive line in the transfer portal over the weekend. Michigan transfer Alessandro Lorenzetti chose Baylor after spending two seasons in Ann Arbor.

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