Big 12 Football Starts Today

The season is finally here! 

Four games kick off the Big 12 season tonight, including a high-profile test for Coach Prime and Colorado. Can they handle perennial FCS power North Dakota State?

In honor of the occasion, I’ll unveil the ten questions that will tell the story of the Big 12 season to get you fully prepared. Remember when I said you’d be the smartest Big 12 fan in your group text?

What You Need to Know

• All eyes will be on Coach Prime and Colorado as they host North Dakota State on ESPN at 7:00 central. NDSU isn’t quite what it used to be, but this is still a stiff test for the Buffaloes, who are only ten-point favorites. 

• Utah QB Cam Rising and Kansas QB Jalon Daniels both make their returns from injuries against overmatched FCS competition. It’s been 605 days since Rising took a snap in a college football game, and Daniels played in only three games last year while battling a back injury. KU-Lindenwood is at 7:00 central, and Utah-Southern Utah starts at 8:00 central, both on ESPN+. 

• We also get our first look at UCF QB KJ Jefferson tonight after transferring from Arkansas. Gus Malzahn and company shouldn’t have much trouble in a home tilt with New Hampshire at 6:00 central on ESPN+. 

• Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark was asked about his pursuit of UConn by Fox 4 Kansas City’s Harold Kuntz. Watch his body language instead of just listening for the only real takeaway from this quote.

• A day before kicking off their season, Colorado made headlines yet again. This time, Front Office Sports reports that Coach Prime and the Buffaloes reached out to the Pac-12 after a 42-6 loss to Oregon last year, alleging that the Ducks may have accessed Colorado practice video and other data. Ultimately, they couldn’t provide proof and back off any investigation.

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Ten Questions That Will Define the Big 12 Season

If you want to know how the Big 12 season will play out, these are the ten questions we need answers to, in no particular order. 

Can Cam Rising and Jalon Daniels Stay Healthy For a Full Season?

I can only imagine how sick Jalon Daniels is of being asked this question. We’ve all asked some version of it a hundred times since he was held out of the Texas game last year.

By now, you probably know the details. Daniels played only three games last year and has averaged six games per season throughout his college career. 

He lit college football on fire to start the 2022 season, throwing 25 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Despite battling injuries, it was enough to propel him to Preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors before the 2023 season, but a back injury kept him out of all but three games. 

Simply put, the Kansas roster (and schedule) is plenty good enough to win a Big 12 title if he stays healthy. If not, Jason Bean isn’t walking through that door to save the day anymore. 

As much ink as Daniels’ injury history gets, it seems there’s not as much doubt about Rising’s ability to return to form. 

When he takes his first snap against Southern Utah tonight, it will have been 605 days since he stepped onto a college football field in uniform. 

His Rose Bowl knee injury wasn’t just a run-of-the-mill tear; Rising tore his meniscus, MPFL, and MCL. It was brutal.

Can a 25-year-old seventh-year senior coming off multiple torn knee ligaments still be the same quarterback that won back-to-back Pac-12 titles?

If he’s anywhere close, this Utah roster is absolutely ready to roll. The word out of Salt Lake is that the Utes have upgraded every other offensive position group, and you know what to expect with their defense.   

Is Colorado Significantly Better in the Trenches?

Colorado seems a lot like politics in America these days. Everybody has an opinion, and nothing will ever change their mind. You either love Coach Prime, or you hate him.

If Colorado is going to prove the fanboys right and legitimately compete for the Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff spot this year, it will come down to one thing: how improved they are in the trenches. 

The Buffs were 132nd out of 133 teams last year in sacks allowed, giving up nearly five(!) per game. If you can believe it, the running game was actually worse. Colorado was 133rd in rushing offense at just 68.9 yards per game. 

Sanders and fellow future first-rounder Travis Hunter lead a wildly talented group of skill position players, but they aren’t enough on their own to win anything meaningful if the line play doesn’t take a significant step forward.

To Coach Prime’s credit, he’s well aware of the issue. The Buffs added five new offensive linemen through the portal and locked down the top-rated high school offensive lineman in OT Jordan Seaton. 

It’s rare to see true freshman offensive tackles starting immediately, but that’s exactly what Seaton will do while protecting Sanders’ blindside. 

Don’t forget about the defensive line, either. Colorado allowed nearly 35 points per game (121st in the country) and 177 rushing yards per game (107th). 

The skill talent is playoff-worthy, but how much will this group in the trenches hold them back? We’ll start to get some answers tonight when they see an always-physical North Dakota State team. 

Is Avery Johnson Still a Year Away?

Everybody knows Avery Johnson has elite athleticism. It was on full display many times during his freshman season – none more obvious than a five-touchdown performance in Lubbock. 

In high school, he was a top-ten quarterback nationally who had a great showing at the prestigious Elite 11 camp, and K-State fans have been anxiously awaiting the day that he took over as the unquestioned starter.

With Will Howard in Columbus, Ohio, that day is here, but has the offseason hype machine gone too far?

Ralph Russo of the Associated Press and The New York Post’s Michael Calabrese both picked Johnson to win the Heisman. Most sports books give him the best odds of any Big 12 player to win college football’s highest honor.  

He wasn’t asked to throw the ball a ton last season, so the sample size is small, but he’ll have to prove that he can do a lot more with his arm if he’s going to be in New York on December 14th. 

If he does, K-State’s roster is loaded with more quality depth than at any point in the Chris Klieman era. A second Big 12 championship and a College Football Playoff berth are both in sight if Johnson is the real deal this year. 

Does Oklahoma State Have Enough to Compliment Ollie Gordon?

Oklahoma State’s 2023 season was wild. There’s no other way to put it.

Head coach Mike Gundy was looking down and out after losing Spencer Sanders and a bevy of other key contributors to the transfer portal, and that was before a 26-point home loss to South Alabama. 

But Gundy showed why he’s a future hall-of-famer and rallied the troops for a ten-win season and a Big 12 championship game appearance. 

The offense found a bonafide star in Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II, who blitzed his way to a 1,700-yard season despite only carrying the ball 19 times in his first three games. 

The Cowboys' offense made it all work, even though they finished just eighth in the league in total offense, ninth in rushing, and eighth in scoring. Journeyman quarterback Alan Bowman even threw 14 interceptions. 

Sluggish offensive performances held the Cowboys back in blowout losses at the hands of UCF and Texas during the final month of the season.

There’s a ton to like about OSU this year, from an uber-experienced offensive line to a handful of explosive and reliable receivers. Still, they’ll likely need more out of Bowman and the rest of the backfield to keep Gordon from shouldering all the load if they want to win Gundy’s second-ever Big 12 title. 

Can Matt Campbell Live Up to High Expectations?

Everybody left Matt Campbell for dead last year. 

Coming off of a four-win season and mired in a gambling scandal that took out multiple starters, including QB Hunter Dekkers, the Cyclones were picked 10th in the Big 12 preseason poll. 

They responded by finishing 6-3 in the conference and unleashing one of the most explosive offenses in the country, led by freshman QB Rocco Becht. 

The best news of all for Cyclones fans? It was one of the youngest rosters in the country, and they return nearly every key contributor this year. 

It’s enough to bring to mind the 2021 Cyclones, who returned a bevy of All-Big 12 and NFL talent, including Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar, Xavier Hutchinson, Mike Rose, and more after a run to the Big 12 Championship game, but finished a disappointing 7-6. 

Campbell has thrived when defying the odds in Ames, with six winning seasons in seven years, but can he come through with the spotlight and expectations ramped up this time?

Cyclones fans (rightfully so) feel now is their time to step up and compete for a Big 12 title again, but Campbell will have to prove that he has a high ceiling to go with an objectively high floor as a head coach. 

Is Brent Brennan Ready for the Big Leagues?

Arizona was easily one of the best stories in college football last year. 

After an early injury to quarterback Jayden de Laura, Noah Fifita came out of nowhere to lead the Wildcats to their first ten-win season in a decade. Just three years after a 1-11 season, Arizona punked Oklahoma in a bowl game to get to double-digit wins. 

While Fifita was awesome, he had plenty of help. WR Tetairoa McMillan emerged as arguably the best receiver in the country, OT Jonah Savaiinaea could be a first-round draft pick, LB Jacob Manu led the Pac-12 in tackles, and CB Tocario Davis was a second-team All-Pac 12 selection.

There’s no questioning the Wildcats' star power, but they did lose a solid chunk of the roster to the transfer portal when Jedd Fisch left for Washington, and new coach Brent Brennan is new to the Power Four level. 

Is a program that has only had one winning season in the last six years ready to withstand a conference change and a coaching change to produce another 10+ win season? 

It all depends on Brennan. His resume at San Jose State is the ultimate college football Rorschach (ink blot) test. 

Some will see a coach who went to three bowl games in four years at a place that had been to three bowl games in 28 years before his run. 

Others see a coach who is 14 games under .500 and has never won more than seven games in a season. 

If the former is correct, watch out. With five Preseason All-Big 12 selections, Arizona has the high-end pieces to make a run to Arlington.

Does UCF Have Big 12 Depth Yet?

I love what UCF is quietly putting together in Orlando. 

Their Big 12 debut may not have been a banner year, but Knights coach Gus Malzahn has proven he can win at the highest level in college football, and he now has a backfield as loaded as any in the league.

QB KJ Jefferson will lead the charge with 36 SEC starts under his belt at Arkansas. His style and stature are reminiscent of another quarterback Malzahn worked with once upon a time at Auburn – Cam Newton. 

Running back RJ Harvey racked up 1,416 yards on the ground last season, including a 206-yard day against Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State, and Toledo transfer Peny Boone was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year.

It’s typical for a team moving up a level like the Knights did to struggle with handling more physicality consistently throughout the year, and the word out of UCF fall camp is that they’re on the way to fixing that issue. 

"We're getting better, but we're not there yet," Malzahn said. 

The Knights used the transfer portal to beef up their depth, and according to 247’s Talent Composite, they are among the top five in the Big 12 in overall talent level. 

If “getting better” means getting significantly deeper, the Knights can challenge for a spot in Arlington.

How High is the Ceiling for Behren Morton and Josh Hoover?

Last year was humbling for Texas Tech and TCU. 

The Horned Frogs went from national runner-up to missing a bowl game, and Tech started 1-3 after being a popular darkhorse pick to win the league. 

Will flying under the radar suit both teams better? They’ll need more consistent quarterback play to make it happen. 

TCU has the most talented roster in the league, according to the 247 Talent Composite. As usual, the Frogs have a bevy of skill position talent on paper. It’ll be up to Josh Hoover to make it all come together. 

Hoover is the unquestioned starter and flashed big-time potential last season, throwing for over 300 yards five times, but he also struggled mightily against K-State and Iowa State and only won two of his six starts. Consistency will be key this season.

Joey McGuire clearly has the Red Raiders on the right path. They’ve put together back-to-back winning conference seasons for the first time since the Mike Leach era in 2008 and 2009, and McGuire is recruiting at a high level. 

There’s an influx of talent at receiver and tight end to go along with stud running back Tahj Brooks, but can Behren Morton do enough to lift Tech above the elusive eight-win plateau? 

It’s fair to mention that he has battled injuries throughout his entire career, but he’ll need to show another gear for the Red Raiders to get over the hump and compete for a Big 12 title.

Is Garrett Green the Breakout Star of the League?

Many West Virginia fans, and even head coach Neal Brown himself, feel like the Mountaineers are being overlooked this year. 

A nine-win season saved Brown’s job last year, but many feel it was largely schedule-driven. The Mountaineers only beat one team that finished in the top half of the Big 12 standings.

Cling to the schedule narrative at your own risk, though. 

West Virginia brings back a dynamic tandem at running back with Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, along with six of its top seven pass catchers. 

That’s great news for QB Garrett Greene, who quietly put together an outstanding season in 2023. 

He racked up over 3,100 total yards and 29 touchdowns and was a big play machine. Just ask Pro Football Focus. 

The one knock was his completion percentage, which hovered just above 50% last year, but if he becomes a more accurate passer this season, he might overshadow a loaded Big 12 quarterback class. 

This year's schedule is tailor-made for Greene to explode onto the national scene. It includes an early test against Penn State and matchups with four of the top five teams in the conference.

Can the Big 12 Get Two Teams in the Playoff?

I hate making the playoff the center of all college football discussions, so we’re stashing this at the bottom. But this is the most important big-picture question we can ask about the league this year.

The expanded playoff will feature three to five SEC and Big Ten teams. It might include Notre Dame. It will include a group of five team. That leaves precious little space for an extra Big 12 at-large.

So, what’s the path toward making this happen? The easiest would be another version of the 2022 TCU Horned Frogs, who went 12-0 in the regular season before falling in overtime of the Big 12 championship game.

If a Big 12 team makes it through the regular season unbeaten and loses a close Big 12 title game, the league should have a good chance to get two teams in.

Things get trickier if it’s an 11-2 Big 12 championship game loser. It likely depends on who that team is and its reputation going into the season.

Narratives matter when it comes to the playoff, and there’s nobody in the league with more national respect right now than Utah. The Utes have the cache of winning back-to-back Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022, and they’re starting the season as the highest-ranked Big 12 team.

The problem for Utah would be a lack of marquee games. Outside of September match-ups with Oklahoma State and Arizona, there aren’t many other high-profile games on paper. Maybe that changes as the season evolves.

On the opposite end of that spectrum is West Virginia. They have arguably the toughest schedule in the league, and they play the biggest non-conference game of the Big 12 season this Saturday against Penn State. They will also see four of the top five teams in the conference.

The Mountaineers don’t have the national reputation of Utah, but they do have a strong enough schedule to potentially give themselves enough leeway to make the playoff with two losses.

K-State probably deserves a mention here, too. The Wildcats have a pretty strong schedule that includes a non-conference tilt with Arizona, a high-profile quarterback who has drawn plenty of preseason hype, and a solid reputation after winning 27 games over the last three years.

I think it’s far more likely than not that the Big 12 only gets one team in the playoff, but if you want to dream, these are the factors and situations to think about.

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