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Big 12 At-Large Becoming More Likely

Guess what? Thanks to BYU and Iowa State, the national media is being forced to talk about the Big 12 right now. 

It might not be as much as we’d like them to. It might not always be positive. It might come with a tidal wave of backhanded compliments. But it is happening because the Cougars and Cyclones keep finding a way to win. 

Having two unbeaten teams into late October is slowly changing the narrative from “well, that’s just a wild conference where we can’t predict anything and nobody is really very good.” The longer both teams keep a zero in the loss column, the more of a threat they become for an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff, which warrants conversation. 

K-State and Colorado are also lurking quietly as one-loss teams that look strong enough to enter the at-large conversation. 

Admittedly, I’ve been incredibly skeptical about the odds of the Big 12 getting an at-large team into the field – so much so that I took that take to the 3MAW podcast with my co-host Cole Manbeck and got pushback from an avid listener. 

It’s honestly a fair point. 

Two years ago, K-State was ranked in the top ten of the final College Football Playoff rankings with three losses. There’s plenty of reason to think that the selection committee will treat the Big 12 with more respect than the average national podcast host or AP poll voter. 

That’s why the SEC and Big Ten are currently discussing ditching a human selection committee entirely. They fear the committee might not be deferential enough to the 9-3 teams in their leagues. 

My skepticism came from realizing how much power and control SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petiti have over the sport right now. They just don’t control the committee…yet. 

Reports say they’re monitoring how the first 12-team playoff process goes and will act accordingly afterward. That means if the Big 12 (or ACC) gets multiple teams in, the SEC and Big Ten will likely push hard for more auto-bids, no selection committee, or even break away to have their own playoff entirely. 

We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, it’s great to see the top four teams in the league push the envelope on what the Big 12 can accomplish in 2024. 

I’d love nothing more than to see the league shake the status quo.

Week Eight: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good

Iowa State and BYU Have the Magic

I asked last week if BYU and Iowa State were on upset alert this weekend with home games against teams that were a combined 1-5 in conference play, but even I couldn’t have imagined just how wild those games would turn out to be.

According to ESPN's win probability projection, the Cougars and Cyclones had less than a 1% chance to win late in the fourth quarter this weekend. It didn’t matter. 

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s miraculous 35-yard touchdown pass to Darius Lassiter and ISU’s game-winning 11-play 80-yard drive had shades of 2022’s TCU heroics. 

“That was out-of-body. That was a spiritual experience. That was insane,” Retzlaff said.

The LaVell Edwards Stadium crowd was stunned after Oklahoma State capped a monster 17-play, 8:26 drive to take the lead with 1:13 left in the game. But Retzlaff calmly engineered a legendary drive that included a 4th and seven conversion and a 27-yard scramble before the touchdown to Lassiter. 

Iowa State looked dead to rights, with UCF up by five and driving into Cyclone territory after picking up two first downs with only 2:10 to go. But Jon Heacock’s defense stood tall with its back against the wall, getting one final stop to set up quarterback Rocco Becht’s heroics on a drive that covered 80 yards in only 1:18. 

It’s not the first time Iowa State has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. The Cyclones rallied from 13 down at Iowa and drove 42 yards in 28 seconds to set up the winning field goal in week two. 

Both drives will live forever in program lore, especially if the Cyclones win a Big 12 championship and/or play in the College Football Playoff. 

There are certainly some reasons for concern for both Big 12 unbeatens. Their defenses struggled as much as they have all season. BYU was gashed for 35 points and 421 yards by an anemic, at best, Oklahoma State offense. The Cyclones allowed a shocking 354 yards on the ground to a UCF offense that had scored only 26 combined points in its last two games. 

But it’s hard to ignore the magic that seems to be swirling around Ames and Provo. Many in the Big 12 and beyond doubted Max Duggan and the 2022 Horned Frogs until they had piled up 12 straight wins in the regular season. 

As my guys at The Solid Verbal always say, “Win your clunkers.” 

Mission accomplished for BYU and Iowa State.

Colorado and Cincinnati Stay in Contention

It’s a rough time to be a Coach Prime hater. 

Colorado looks like a complete team that is rapidly improving as the season progresses – and on Saturday, that started with the defense.

The Buffs smothered Arizona star receiver Tetairoa McMillan and the Wildcats’ passing attack. McMillan had just five catches for 38 yards, while quarterback Noah Fifita ran for his life all afternoon. 

Colorado sacked Fifita seven times, more than the Wildcats' offensive line had allowed during the first six games of the season combined. He also lost a fumble and threw an interception, the latest in a long line of turnovers that have plagued the Arizona offense this year.

The Buffaloes’ offense was its typical self and helped them build a 21-point halftime lead that they wouldn’t come close to relinquishing. 

This isn’t the 2023 Colorado team that withered away with every passing week. These Buffs are gathering strength as the calendar turns. 

Cincinnati is also a vastly different team from a season ago. 

The Bearcats are quietly one of four Big 12 teams lurking at 3-1 behind unbeaten Iowa State and BYU after putting away Arizona State 24-14. 

While Cincy hasn’t been flashy the last two weeks, they’ve been effective enough. Most of the offensive damage on Saturday came in the first half when the Bearcats scored 24 straight points to build a 17-point lead. 

The defense dominated a Sun Devils offense playing with a backup quarterback. After an early Cam Skattebo touchdown, ASU was forced to punt three times and was stopped on downs twice to end the half. Skattebo finished with just 75 yards – his lowest rushing total in a month. 

The schedule is about to get a lot tougher with road trips to Colorado, Iowa State, and K-State on the way, but that also gives head coach Scott Satterfield a chance to make a real statement. 

They’ve certainly earned that opportunity. 

New Life for UCF’s Offense

You have to feel for UCF. After a brutal month, they had arguably a bigger upset than last year’s blowout win over Oklahoma State all teed up in Ames, only to see it turn into the most gut-wrenching loss of the season. 

They fell one play short. 

There are plenty of positives to take from that performance when the dust finally settles, though. It looks like the Golden Knights have new life and a new direction for an offense that had gone totally stale and stagnant with former starting quarterback KJ Jefferson. 

New starter Jacurri Brown dazzled on the ground and looks like a perfect compliment to star running back RJ Harvey. Brown racked up 154 yards on 13 carries and had a special message for the crowd in Ames after this electric touchdown scamper.

He only threw for 62 yards, but he didn’t need to do much through the air with head coach Gus Malzahn in his bag of tricks with the ground game all night. 

Speaking of Harvey, he busted out a season-high 196 yards after failing to hit the 100-yard mark in three straight games. 

It seems like Malzahn found something again with Brown at QB in what was once considered a dominant rushing attack. Was it a one-game mirage in an otherwise lost season? I’m willing to give Malzahn the benefit of the doubt, especially because this performance came against one of the league’s best defenses. 

The Knights don’t exactly have an easy schedule the rest of the way, but they are certainly capable of winning every game left. Even this week’s matchup with BYU at the Bounce House is in play if both teams play the way they did in week eight.  

Kansas Finally Breaks Through

A 42-14 win over Houston had to be cathartic for Lance Leipold and the Kansas Jayhawks. 

For once, there were no late-game blunders, Jalon Daniels interceptions, or cries to fire the offensive coordinator. KU blitzed the Cougars early to jump in front 21-0 by the early moments of the second quarter and never looked back. It gave the Jayhawks their first win in 51 days. 

Daniels had his best day of the season, throwing for 247 yards, three touchdowns, and perhaps most importantly, no interceptions. Cornerback Cobee Bryant shrugged off injury concerns to tie a Kansas record with three interceptions. 

The performance kept Kansas’ hopes for a bowl game on life support. To make a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history, KU must finish 4-1 against a schedule that includes K-State, Iowa State, and BYU. 

Easier said than done, but it would have been nearly impossible with a loss on Saturday. 

The Bad

Avery Johnson Haters

K-State fans are sick of seeing the tweets by now. 

The tweet above was obviously a successful troll job, but it’s far from the first to use the phrase “glorified running back” for quarterback Avery Johnson. Used generously in the offseason, that phrase gained steam when Johnson struggled with consistency through the air during the first month of the season. 

Good news, Cat fans: he’s putting that talk to bed fast. 

Johnson threw for a career-high 298 yards and three touchdowns on a night when he didn’t have a single carry. His 96.5 QBR was the second-best among FBS quarterbacks in a week eight game and was the best by any Big 12 quarterback in a game against Power Four competition this year. 

Johnson hasn’t had the luxury of using his legs in back-to-back games because of a hip injury suffered early at Colorado, but his arm has more than made up for it.

In wins over Oklahoma State, Colorado, and West Virginia, Johnson has completed 63% of his passes, averaging 260 yards per game and eight touchdowns with only two interceptions. His deep balls connect more often, and we’re seeing less of the erratic short and intermediate throws that plagued him in September. 

Don’t look now, but K-State has the best offense in the Big 12 by at least one metric. 

The Wildcats now appear much more than one-dimensional. West Virginia completely shut down star running back DJ Giddens and still gave up 38 points to the K-State offense without Johnson taking a single carry. 

That’s bad news for the rest of the league. 

Neal Brown and Brent Brennan’s Approval Ratings

This week’s match-up between West Virginia and Arizona will be a battle to see which fan base is angrier at its coach. 

Brent Brennan and Neal Brown lost to Colorado and K-State on Saturday by a combined score of 79-25, and both coaches appear totally out of the Big 12 title race. 

Brennan inherited a team that won ten games last year and brought back high-level NFL talent, including a star quarterback and wide receiver combo. This year’s offense resembles nothing close to the dynamic attack that former head coach Jedd Fisch put together.

The Wildcats had as many punts as points against the Buffaloes, and the contrast between the two programs was glaring. 

Colorado’s defense was supposed to be a program weakness. Instead, Coach Prime and defensive coordinator Robert Livingston have helped that unit develop significantly. All we’ve seen from Brennan so far in Tucson is significant program regression. 

Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but it’s hard to find many positives to latch onto as building blocks for the future of Brennan’s program. 

Brown continues to struggle in big moments. He has now lost nine games in a row to ranked opponents by an average of 22 points per game. The Mountaineers have only cracked the top 25 once under his leadership, and that was the final AP poll last season when they finished 25th. 

This year was supposed to be a breakthrough with plenty of returning production from last year’s surprising nine-win team, including starting quarterback Garrett Greene. Yes, the Mountaineers’ four losses are to teams with a combined record of 24-1, but most haven’t even been close losses. 

Saturday’s game against K-State was supposed to be Brown's final chance to live up to expectations this year. At this point, the fan base would likely consider anything short of winning out an overall disappointment.

Will a bowl game be enough to save Brown?

The Ugly

Utah’s Season Tanking

I have good news and bad news for Utah fans. 

The bad news is that the Utah Utes' season is tanking after an embarrassing 13-7 home loss to TCU. 

The good news is that Utah seems to have found a scapegoat. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig announced on Sunday that he’s stepping away after a decade with head coach Kyle Whittingham.

The news comes after the Utes scored just 36 combined points over the last three weeks. Saturday, they only mustered seven against a TCU defense that gave up 30 at home to Houston. For context, Houston has scored just 13 combined points in its other three Big 12 games. 

There’s no denying that Cam Rising’s injury situation made Ludwig’s job a lot tougher, but if Utah truly fancies itself as the best football program in the Big 12, one quarterback injury can’t render your offense completely impotent. 

The harsh reality for Utah is that its program is much more similar to the rest of the Big 12 than it is different. They’re very capable of winning 10+ games and making a run at the College Football Playoff, just not every year. They’ll have to rely on hitting the peak of a particular developmental cycle and getting some injury luck to make it happen. 

We’re approaching a crucial inflection point with Utah’s program in general. They’ve already named defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley the head coach in waiting. Whittingham isn’t getting any younger. And now the Cam Rising era appears to be over. 

Can the Utes get back to the level they were at in 2021 and 2022? Will it be with Whittingham calling the shots?

A fascinating offseason awaits. 

Texas Tech’s Regression

What happened in Lubbock, man??

Just when it looked like Texas Tech had things rolling, 59 points from Baylor brought the hype train to a screeching halt. The Bears snapped an eight-game Big 12 losing streak by absolutely drilling the Red Raiders 59-35 in Lubbock. 

It was Tech’s worst home loss since the Baylor game two years ago when the Bears spoiled Patrick Mahomes’ Ring of Honor ceremony. 

The Red Raiders’ defense gave up 529 total yards and is now last in the league in scoring and pass defense, but special teams didn’t help the cause much, either. 

Baylor scored touchdowns after a shanked 32-yard punt and a low punt that was returned 73 yards to the Texas Tech one-yard line. The Bears also added a field goal after Drae McCray muffed a punt at the 19-yard line. 

Adding insult to Tech's injury is allowing Lubbock native and Baylor starting quarterback Sawyer Robertson to throw for a career-high five touchdown passes in his hometown stadium.

The Red Raiders are still technically very much alive in the Big 12 title race at 3-1, but they don’t look like a team that will be there until the end. Credit head coach Joey McGuire for righting the ship after a rough start and squeaking past a string of average opponents. You should never apologize for winning. 

But we now know Tech is perfectly capable of being blown out at home by a below-average team that is likely to fire its coach.

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