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Iowa State and BYU on Upset Alert?
And another contender missing its QB this weekend
Fully Loaded Slate in Week Eight
After a quality-over-quantity week seven, everybody is in action during week eight of Big 12 play. It’ll be another weekend that starts on Friday night and doesn’t wrap up until early Sunday morning.
There aren’t any five-Yormark classics on paper, but plenty of four and three-Yormark games should be plenty to satisfy your appetite for good football.
The three teams unbeaten in conference play, BYU, Iowa State, and Texas Tech, are all solid to heavy favorites, but we’ve seen upsets all over college football lately. Is it the Big 12’s turn this week?
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Week Eight Primer
I’ll be previewing games every week based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest.
Here’s your week eight primer! All times listed are Central Time (CST)
Five Yormarks
None
4 Yormarks
#17 K-State (5-1, 2-1) at West Virginia (3-3, 2-1) – 6:30 Fox
Line: K-State -3
It’s been an eventful week in Morgantown.
During his weekly press conference, WVU head coach Neal Brown really stepped in it with Mountaineer fans. He was asked what his message would be to a disappointed fan base that created a big-time atmosphere against Iowa State.
Oof…. -Come back because everything besides the result of the game is fun-
— Josh (@Yickety304)
7:46 PM • Oct 14, 2024
The clip has been shared repeatedly all week and even made it to Around the Horn on ESPN.
Neal Brown getting crushed on Around the Horn today.
I certainly am gonna have a great time tailgating Saturday in Morgantown. Win or lose, don’t matter to me but Morgantown always wins.
— C Wade 3 (@cgatorwade)
9:43 PM • Oct 16, 2024
Brown has been good enough to get West Virginia fans excited at times during his six years in Morgantown, but he has repeatedly failed to meet the moment in big games against ranked opponents – he’s only 3-16 against the Top 25.
This game represents another chance to get over the hump. If he does, the Mountaineers will find themselves in the middle of the Big 12 title race. As bad as things feel right now for WVU fans, WVU only has one conference loss. The Mountaineers' three losses are to teams that are a combined 18-0, but their wins are over Albany and two Big 12 teams who haven’t won a conference game.
K-State is riding high after a road win in Boulder, which improved its record to 5-1, but this is another tricky spot – not unlike the Wildcats’ trip to Provo.
Last week, a late-night game in the moutain time zone put the Wildcats back in Manhattan around 5 a.m. on Sunday. Now, they go two time zones east to face another juiced-up, late-night crowd at one of the more challenging Big 12 venues.
Head coach Chris Klieman did deliver some good injury news about defensive backs Jacob Parrish, Marques Sigle, and Justice James.
Nobody is ruled out for West Virginia injury-wise, per Kansas State HC Chris Klieman. Got some better news than they were expecting. Anticipates everyone having a good shot to play.
— Derek Young (@DerekYoungKSO)
5:35 PM • Oct 14, 2024
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers may be down their best pass rusher and safety.
Both teams want to run the ball on offense and have suspect pass defenses, which makes for an interesting match-up. Whichever quarterback, Avery Johnson or Garrett Greene, can exploit the opposition’s weakness and take better care of the football should come out on top.
Arizona State (5-1, 2-1) at Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1) – 11:00 ESPN+
Line: Cincinnati -5
I love that this matchup has become as meaningful as it has. The winner will keep pace in the Big 12 title race into late October. Who would have dreamed back in August that a match-up of teams picked 14th and 16th in the Big 12 preseason poll would have Big 12 title and College Football Playoff implications?
It’s a bummer that we won’t see Arizona State starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who will miss at least this week with a rib injury. He took a nasty hit last week against Utah.
After taking a shot to the ribs against Utah, Sam Leavitt got up and ran into the huddle "screaming like a maniac" at his teammates to fire them up.
"The toughness and DNA of that kid is why he's put himself in the position to lead this football team for a long time."
— Blake Niemann (@Blakes_Take2)
8:51 PM • Oct 16, 2024
That means former Nebraska and Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims will get the start for ASU. He started 23 games as a Yellowjacket and has 4,759 career passing yards, but struggled mightily in two starts for Nebraska last year.
Sun Devils’ head coach Kenny Dillingham is certainly projecting confidence in Sims.
Arizona State HC Kenny Dillingham is all in on former #Huskers QB Jeff Sims, who will start in place of the injured Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils this week.
"If you can't get behind that ... then I don't know what you can get belief in."
📹: @Blakes_Take2, @SunDevilSource
— Mason Kern Local4 (@MasonKernMedia)
3:39 PM • Oct 17, 2024
Leavitt’s absence could put more of the load on star running back Cam Skattebo, who is fifth in the country with 773 rushing yards this season.
Cincinnati picked up its best win of the season last week at UCF, but it wasn’t pretty. The Bearcats are a top-15 passing offense nationally and are second in the Big 12 in yards per play, but they were out-gained by 59 yards and only found the end zone once in Orlando.
Both teams look good enough to play a bigger role in the conference title chase than a mere spoiler, but this game is crucial to making that a reality.
Colorado (4-2, 2-1) at Arizona (3-3, 1-2) – 3:00 Fox
Line: Arizona -3
Coach Prime and Colorado narrowly missed a chance to jump into the driver’s seat for a spot in the Big 12 championship game last week. K-State’s Avery Johnson and Jayce Brown made sure a furious late comeback by the Buffs would all be for naught.
Heisman candidate Travis Hunter missed most of that game, but he and fellow receiver Jimmy Horn Jr. are expected back this week, which is excellent news for everybody except Arizona fans.
Two of the elite receivers in the country will go toe-to-toe with Hunter on one side and Arizona phenom Tetairoa McMillan on the other. As a bonus, we’ll also likely see Hunter defending McMillan as a cornerback. Both will be first-round draft picks sooner rather than later.
While McMillan continues to produce as the Big 12 leader in catches, the Arizona offense has had issues with consistency. They’re 13th in the league in points per drive and have struggled mightily in the red zone.
First-year head coach Brent Brennan is running out of time to fix it in a season that began with College Football Playoff aspirations.
The Buffaloes are still very much in that conversation with only one league loss, but there isn’t much margin for error.
Outside of the loss in Lincoln, Colorado has been a good road team this year. You could argue that the Buffaloes’ two best performances this season came in wins at Colorado State and UCF.
We’ll see if the trend continues in Tucson.
3 Yormarks
Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3) at #13 BYU (6-0, 3-0) – 9:15 ESPN (Fri)
Line: BYU -9
It would have been easy to predict this game back in August to be a match-up between a 6-0 team and a 3-3 team. Nobody would have guessed the Cougars would be the team walking in unbeaten.
Everything is coming up Cougs right now. Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff came to town, they thumped K-State and Arizona on national TV, and now many are projecting them in the College Football Playoff.
"This folks is a bucket list stadium." 😍
Gus Johnson is loving the views in Provo 🏟️
@BYUfootball
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX)
10:06 PM • Oct 12, 2024
The Cougars’ defense has set the tone. They’re tops in the Big 12, allowing just 4.4 yards per play, and are plus-seven in turnover margin. If that’s not enough for you, how about this?
From one of my stats interns, @MattingleyTyler:
BYU opponents have had more drives end in a turnover than touchdown or field goal (18% TO; 14% TD, 14% FG).
Including turnovers on downs, BYU opponents turn the ball over on 35% of possessions--more than any other drive outcome,… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell)
6:57 PM • Oct 17, 2024
Head coach Kalani Sitake won’t look at it this way, but the schedule sets up nicely to keep the momentum going. The Cougs avoid Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Colorado in the back half of the schedule.
Does Oklahoma State have anything left in the tank to pull off a shocker and kill that schedule narrative?
It sounds like head coach Mike Gundy is pulling out all the stops, namely making a change at quarterback. The O’Colly reports that Garret Rangel will get the start in Provo, with Zane Flores as the backup. Apparently, there will be no more Alan Bowman.
Something certainly needs to change. OSU hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game since mid-September.
Adverse weather tends to favor the underdog, so will cold and rainy conditions in the Mountains give the Pokes a boost? Or will BYU get revenge for a devastating double overtime loss in Stillwater last year that cost them a bowl game?
We’ll find out tonight.
Houston (2-4, 1-2) at Kansas (1-5, 0-3) – 2:30 ESPN+
Line: KU -4.5
Kansas started the year with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. Now, the Jayhawks are just hoping to salvage a bowl game out of the season.
Kansas players are saying the right things about feeling energized after a bye week. It gave them a brief respite from a five-game losing streak in which the Jayhawks lost by an average of only 5.6 points per game.
A turnaround has to start somewhere, and what better place than Arrowhead Stadium against a rebuilding Houston program?
KU is still dealing with some significant injury issues. Star cornerback Cobee Bryant is “highly questionable,” according to head coach Lance Leipold, and defensive tackle Cornell Wheeler will likely miss a third straight game.
Houston’s season has been rocky, too, but the Cougars may have found something with Zeon Chriss at quarterback. He put up 238 total yards of offense in an upset win at TCU and helped break the Cougars out of the offense rut that plagued them in shoutout losses to Iowa State and Cincinnati.
Will better offense become a trend for Houston with Chriss under center, or was the performance in Ft. Worth just an outlier?
Baylor (2-4, 0-3) at Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0) – 3:00 ESPN 2
Line: Tech -6.5
With so much attention focused on BYU and Iowa State’s unbeaten starts, it’s easy to gloss over Texas Tech. Don’t look now, but the Red Raiders are undefeated in conference play with a favorable draw the rest of the way.
Things couldn’t have started much worse, but a healthy Tahj Brooks and an ascending toward average defense helped head coach Joey McGuire rip off four straight wins to jump into first place.
While Tech’s pass defense is last in the Big 12, the secondary is getting healthier. Cornerbacks Brayln Lux and Jalon Peoples should be available on Saturday.
A potential monster match-up in Ames looms just two weeks away, but the Red Raiders must take care of in-state rivals Baylor and TCU first.
Say what you will about the Bears, but they have generally been competitive despite a 2-4 start. They were a hail mary away in Boulder, pushed BYU, and led Iowa State 14-3 early on. That won’t cut it, though, for Baylor fans – or head coach Dave Aranda’s job security.
Can Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson take advantage of the leaky Tech secondary? He’s provided a spark since taking over for Dequan Finn, with eight touchdown passes in his last three games.
He’s not getting much help from a defense that’s giving up 34.5 points per game and 2.5 points per drive in conference play. That’s supposed to be Aranda’s area of expertise and something he took more control of this season.
The Bears are 3-17 in their last 20 games against FBS competition, which doesn’t bode well for the chances of an upset here.
TCU (3-3, 1-2) at Utah (4-2, 1-2) – 9:30 ESPN
Line: Utah -3.5
Life without Cam Rising officially begins now for the Utes. Rising has been officially declared out for the season, paving the way for this to fully become true freshman Issac Wilson’s team.
Offense has been a struggle with either QB since week one.
“We’re last in the conference in completion percentage; we’re worst in the conference throwing picks. We have to figure that out,” head coach Kyle Whittingham said.
Utah will continue to lean on running back Micah Bernard, who averages 6.6 yards per carry, second only to K-State’s DJ Giddens in the Big 12 among backs with 100+ carries.
Of course, the defense will also shoulder much of the load. That unit is debatably the best in the Big 12.
TCU had plenty of time to lick its wounds after losing at home to Houston. In the last month, the Horned Frogs blew a three-score lead to UCF, gave up 66 points to SMU, and lost at home to a Houston team that didn’t score in its first two Big 12 games.
Don’t blame that all on the defense. The offense shares equal responsibility in a more-than-disappointing follow-up to last year’s 5-7 season. TCU has turned it over 12(!) times in the last three games. If they continue that trend, the Frogs won’t beat Utah, let alone anybody with a pulse.
Utah has lost two straight. TCU has lost three of four. The losing skids set up an intriguing match-up of two teams desperate to salvage whatever they can from their season.
2 Yormarks
UCF (3-3, 1-2) at Iowa State (6-0, 3-0) – 6:30 FS1
Line: ISU -13.5
In the offseason, this looked like a sneaky great game with Big 12 title implications on both sides. Now, it’s a game between two teams that could not be going in more opposite directions.
Iowa State’s biggest worry lately has been shade thrown by national media evaluating its unblemished resume.
ESPN already hard at work bending over backwards to somehow spin Notre Dame’s win at Purdue (one of the worst teams in the FBS) as a quality win, while Iowa State is just lucky to be here and better hope Iowa keeps winning.
— Wide Right & Natty Lite (@WideRtNattyLt)
2:27 PM • Oct 16, 2024
On the field, things are taking care of themselves. When combining the best computer rankings around, the Cyclones have the league’s second-best defense and fourth-best offense. The offense can beat you on the ground with a stable of backs or through the air with two of the best receivers in the conference.
They’re yet to be seriously challenged in the Big 12, winning every league game by an average of 18 points per game.
It’s tough to see UCF being the first team to do it, especially in Ames, but crazier things have certainly happened.
The Knights’ three-game losing streak feels all too familiar. They dropped five in a row during this exact same stretch of the season a year ago.
Maybe the change at quarterback will spark the UCF offense. After benching KJ Jefferson last week, 17-year-old true freshman EJ Colson became the youngest player in program history to start a game. Colson played three series before Miami transfer Jacurri Brown finished the game.
Results were mixed, and UCF head coach Gus Malzahn hasn’t yet committed to one or the other for Saturday.
Iowa State stalwart defensive coordinator Jon Heacock should be licking his chops at the thought of getting a crack at a true freshman.
1 Yormark
None
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