Mission Impossible for Houston?

There’s no knocking Houston’s NCAA tournament resume this year. Nobody has had a more difficult path to get to San Antonio. 

The Cougars played dramatically under-seeded Gonzaga in the round of 32, had to play a road game in Indianapolis against Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen, and locked down a two seed in the Elite Eight with a historic defensive performance. 

Speaking of KenPom, Houston is the sixth-best team in KenPom history, which dates back to 1996. 

So, how is it possible that Kelvin Sampson’s team only has the third-best odds to win the title out of the four teams left? Because they’re up against the second-best team of the last thirty years in Duke. 

The Blue Devils have won three of their four tournament games by at least 20 points, including holding the nation’s best scoring offense (Alabama) to just 65 points in the Elite Eight.

Duke forward Cooper Flagg is a future NBA All-Star, and he’s paired with fellow freshman stud Kon Knueppel and sharpshooter Tyrese Proctor. Their talent, shooting, and size make for a nightmare match-up. 

Frankly, it’s understandable that the Blue Devils are 5.5-point favorites. 

Houston's having to face the best team in the country in the semifinal makes Texas Tech’s loss all the more painful. From a narrative standpoint, the Big 12 could have already wrapped up a near-perfect tournament for the league by having half of the final four teams. 

Instead, the only way to earn that level of respect for the conference is for Houston to beat back-to-back historically good teams. Remember that all four of these teams are ranked in the top ten of KenPom’s best teams of the past three decades. 

I don’t mean to write the Cougars off—they’re certainly capable. 

This team has won 17 straight games and has only lost once since you were finishing up your Thanksgiving leftovers in late November. 

Houston boasts the nation’s top-ranked defense, which will be fascinating to watch against arguably the best offense and best player in the country. 

And if you’re looking for an even more positive spin, think about what there is to gain for the Big 12. 

A Houston title would be one of the most impressive runs to a championship we’ve ever seen. 

I already laid out how difficult their run has been so far. Now add an upset of Duke and a win over a one seed from perhaps the best conference we’ve ever seen in college basketball (if you buy the SEC propaganda). 

There’s a lot on the table for the Cougars and the conference, but it won’t come easily. 

What You Need to Know

• If you’re looking for more on the Final Four, ESPN has a great, comprehensive preview that breaks down all four teams. Get the scoop on everything you need to know about the Duke-Houston matchup. 

• ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Dan Wetzel dug deep into the plans for NIL enforcement in the revenue-sharing era. Power Four schools plan on using a third-party entity, separate from the NCAA, to enforce “fair market value” for any NIL deal above $600. Many coaches are skeptical about how this is going to work. 

• The new “fair market value” system could be bad for the Big 12. Schools with money to blow, like Texas Tech and BYU, would probably prefer the current free-for-all landscape. I explain why in this video. 

• K-State Head Coach Chris Klieman called college athletics a disaster and teed off on the new NCAA football roster limit of 105 players. That’s a revenue-sharing era change. Many coaches hate it because it essentially eliminates walk-ons. Check out Klieman’s impassioned speech here. 

• Yet another Kansas Jayhawk is in the portal. Former All-Big Ten performer AJ Storr becomes the sixth KU player to enter the portal this offseason. Storr came in with plenty of hype but failed to live up to the lofty expectations in Lawrence.

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