Realignment Slows Down

Don't hold your breath if you were hoping for more major conference realignment in the next few years. 

The ACC is expected to finalize a deal with Clemson and Florida State on Tuesday, ending the four combined lawsuits between the parties. It will likely restore order within the conference and keep both schools there–until 2030, at least. 

Having said that, this deal is a bigger win for the Seminoles and Tigers. 

There are two primary components of the deal:

• A new revenue distribution model will give more TV money to schools that generate more TV viewership. 

• The cost to leave the conference will be immediately lowered and lowered significantly after the 2029-30 school year. 

The “brand initiative” is the lesser of the two wins for the schools. It will allow them to make more money based on TV viewership. Reports indicate it can be as much as an extra $15 million per year. 

Combine that with the already established “success initiatives” that give extra money to schools with the most on-field success, and Florida State or Clemson (or any other ACC school) could earn up to an additional $30 million per year. 

That won’t pull them even with their rivals in the SEC, but it’s a nice step in the right direction. 

Of course, it comes at the expense of the lesser brands and programs in the conference, who could lose up to $7 million per year moving forward. That’s the tradeoff for at least five more years of being in a Power Four conference. 

The big win for the ACC’s big brands is the lowered cost of leaving the conference. 

Florida State’s lawyers once calculated that leaving the ACC early would cost around $700 million, between the exit fees and the cost of breaking the Grant of Rights. 

Now, On3’s Andy Staples reports that the total number required to leave the league will be $200 million once this new deal is signed, and it will drop to “well below” $100 million after the 2029-30 school year. 

That date coincides with the end of the Big Ten’s current TV deal. It will be an opportune time for the Big Ten to expand, and most in college athletics expect the next round of realignment to happen then. 

This means that there is now a clear path for schools like Clemson, FSU, and North Carolina to jump at the end of the decade. There is a much more reasonable number to save up for and a way to make extra money over the next five years while they wait. 

The biggest takeaway for Big 12 fans is that any additions to the conference from the ACC likely won’t occur until 2030 at the earliest. Not long ago, it felt like there was a chance for Louisville, Pitt, and others to be in play for the Big 12 sooner rather than later. 

There could also be an entirely different restructuring of the sport around 2030 anyway–something like a Super League. 

Honestly, it would be nice not to worry much about major realignment for the next few years. Not that any Big 12 schools have any other options right now, anyway. 

Check out my latest YouTube video if you want more on this topic. 

What You Need to Know

• A reader asked a great question about the Big 12 private capital story from my last newsletter: why would the Big 12 take on an extra 15-20% debt when they already have to find $20 million more per year for revenue sharing? Based on previous reporting on this topic, the league thinks its next TV deal could be worth more than double the current deal, so it would be betting on its future self. You could use the extra money from the next TV deal to pay off the interest on the capital infusion you would get up front. It’s certainly risky, but I believe that is the idea. 

• Congratulations to the Houston Cougars. They are now officially back-to-back Big 12 champions after beating Cincinnati 73-64 on Saturday. They are the first school to win back-to-back league titles in their first two seasons in a major conference in over 100 years. This outstanding picture says it all. Check out what ESPN’s Dick Vitale has to say about the Cougars. 

• Kansas lost its third league home game of the season to Texas Tech on Saturday, but there was much more talk about what happened after the game. KU guard Zeke Mayo dealt with some truly despicable messages sent his way after missing a late three that could have tied the game. Bill Self released a somewhat bizarre statement after Mayo’s tweet. 

• FanDuel has released its Big 12 football over/under win totals for the 2025 season. Every Big 12 team is separated by three wins or less. You’ll probably be surprised to see who two of the three favorites are. That group doesn’t include BYU, and Cougars fans won’t like where they’re at compared to rival Utah.

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