Big 12 National Title Out of Reach?

Three of the last four games of the College Football Playoff have been incredible theater.

Arizona State pushed Texas to the brink in the Peach Bowl, Penn State and Notre Dame went blow for blow in the Orange Bowl, and Ohio State stonewalled Texas on the goal line in the Cotton Bowl. 

I can’t imagine how anybody would say the expanded playoff hasn’t been a fantastic addition for fans. We were given more high-leverage games, including three absolute classics. 

Of course, you’ll find Georgia fans on the internet complaining about a team that lost to Northern Illinois playing for a national title–no mention of the fact their squad lost to that same team, though. Georgia and Oregon would have played for the title in the BCS era. Tough break, Dawgs. 

The point is, for any rational fan, it’s been wonderful. 

But there are some unfortunate ramifications for Big 12 fans. And ACC fans. And, frankly, fans of any team that isn’t one of the top 10-15 brands in the sport. 

Ohio State is in on a magical run where they’ve knocked off the #7, #1, and #3 teams in the country by an average of 19 points per game to get to the championship game. 

Yes, they have two losses, but I’d argue nobody has ever earned a spot in the title game more because of this three-game stretch of dominance. 

Can you imagine anybody outside the absolute top tier of the sport ever being capable of putting a run like that together? Because that’s what it’s going to take. 

The unfortunate reality of an expanded playoff is that you now need to win four instead of two games for a title. 

I know the Big 12 champ got a first-round bye this year, but that will be gone sooner rather than later. It might happen next year. If you aren’t one of the blue bloods, byes will be few and far between. 

An expanded playoff creates the illusion of everybody else in college football being closer to the biggest prize. You’re certainly much closer to actually being in the tournament. The current Big 12 only had two teams (Cincinnati and TCU) make the four-team playoff in ten years. It’s likely to get a team in a 12 or 14-team playoff nearly every year. 

But adding on two extra high-level games to win against top 12 (at worst) teams creates a much higher barrier to becoming a champion.  

An unbeaten Big 12 team like TCU in 2022 won’t be able to play in the national championship game after just one win over a 2022 Michigan-level team; it will take three of those wins. 

In the old system, you could squint and see a team making a run like those Horned Frogs did, and maybe they get a Big Ten team with a critical injury in the championship game. It was somewhat plausible. 

I have a hard time finding a scenario where it could happen now. 

Arizona State put on a hell of a show against Texas. I love the Sun Devils, and they proved me wrong with their performance, but would they be capable of doing that against Texas, Ohio State, and Notre Dame back-to-back-to-back? 

I don’t mean to pick on the Big 12 here, either. Most, if not all, of the ACC is in the same boat. You could argue Florida State, Miami, and Clemson have an outside shot at putting together a roster strong enough to make a three or four-game run. 

The same principle applies to over half the Big Ten, about half of the SEC, and the entire Group of Five.  

It’s a disheartening reality, especially when many current Big 12 schools have been close in recent memory. 

• TCU in 2022

• UCF in 2017

• Baylor and TCU in 2014

• K-State in 2012 and 1998

• Oklahoma State in 2011

• West Virginia in 2007

But is it really that different from the status quo for the last 30+ years?

I went through the list of past college football national champions, and Washington in 1991 is the last team to win it all that I would consider outside of the top 15 brands in the sport (Nebraska qualifies at the time they won their titles). 

That doesn’t mean Cinderella is totally dead. We will see teams like Arizona State pull off upsets in the expanded playoff; they just won’t win a title. 

In reality, the champion version of Cinderella is Ohio State. A team that stubbed its toe twice in the regular season but was given the opportunity to make a run anyway.

What You Need to Know

• Utah AD Mark Harlan spoke publicly about his Holy War tirade for the first time in an exclusive interview with the Deseret News. He showed plenty of contrition and revealed that he apologized after the incident to BYU AD Tom Holmoe and head coach Kalani Sitake, as well as Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark. 

• After a report surfaced that Colorado head coach Deion Sanders had very strong interest in the Las Vegas Raiders job, The Athletic reports that the Raiders have “zero interest” in giving Coach Prime the job. That’s good news for Colorado – and Big 12 TV ratings – in 2025, unless…

• Sanders gets the now-open Dallas Cowboys job. Multiple reports confirm that he has talked with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones about the opening. How serious the discussions are remains to be seen. 

• Houston AD Eddie Nunez says the Cougars are all-in on hitting the maximum $20.5 million revenue-sharing number for student-athletes next year. The Cougars have the smallest athletic budget among Power Four schools and it is heavily subsidized by the university. 

• Get up to speed on the Big 12 basketball weekend that saw Iowa State outlast Texas Tech in a classic overtime game in Lubbock. Houston and Arizona also kept pace with the Cyclones at the top of the league standings. 

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Dive Deeper

I have expanded thoughts on the Mark Harlan apology and how Utah compared to BYU in the first year of the Holy War tandem being in the Big 12 on my YouTube channel. 

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