Can BYU Still Make the Playoff w/ a Loss Saturday?

And why K-State had to hire Collin Klein

I can’t remember a crazier week in the Big 12 than this one.

We had Kalani Sitake’s Penn State decision, Joey McGuire signing an extension, another intense debate about playoff rankings, and Chris Klieman’s sudden retirement. 

Oh, yeah. The Big 12 championship game is on Saturday at sold-out AT&T Stadium, too. 

Here are the five biggest storylines from the week, including a potential path to the playoff for BYU even if the Cougars lose the Big 12 championship game.  

Kalani Sitake Stays at BYU

BYU fans have been on an emotional roller coaster this week. 

What started as a few internet rumors about head coach Kalani Sitake talking to Penn State quickly turned into a very real situation. Multiple credible reports suggested that the Nittany Lions were expecting Sitake to accept their offer to nearly triple his current salary. 

But BYU put the full-court press on Sitake to get him to stay, and it worked.

According to On3’s Pete Nakos, BYU is giving Sitake a raise from around $4 million in annual salary to over $9 million. The Cougars are also committing to spend $10 to $15 million over the revenue-sharing cap annually for football.

Most football programs are expected to get around $14 million from revenue sharing, meaning BYU is committing to spending between $24 and $29 million every year on its football roster. 

CBS Sports reports that BYU paid just $10 million for its current roster. The Cougars are now looking at spending nearly three times that amount moving forward.

I cannot understate how important that is for the future of BYU football. Sitake flirting with Penn State actually turned into a blessing in disguise for Cougars fans. With that level of financial commitment, BYU can theoretically put together a roster that can compete with Texas Tech. Multiple reports pegged this year’s Tech roster at around $28 million. 

Tech and BYU are best positioned to be the kingpins of the league with their combination of financial commitment and head coaches in place. 

So all is well in Provo, except…

BYU Left Out of the Top 10; Tech up to #4 in Playoff Rankings

BYU is still on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff.

The Cougars are still sitting at #11, which means with automatic bids for two conference champions not ranked in the top ten, BYU appears to have no path to the playoff outside of beating Texas Tech to win the Big 12 and secure an autobid. 

It’s ridiculous that Notre Dame continues to stay ahead of BYU. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Cougars have a better strength of record, strength of schedule, and a better win than the Fighting Irish. Yet, ESPN continues to insist on leaving BYU out of the at-large discussion entirely. 

You can say that’s because they’re about to play in a conference championship game, but so is Alabama, and there’s no shortage of discussion about the Crimson Tide’s chances if they lose to Georgia. 

So, is all hope lost if BYU loses again to the Red Raiders? Maybe not quite all of it. 

It’s a long shot, but I do wonder what would happen if the Cougars put a real scare into Tech

What if BYU and Tech play a Big 12 championship game that looks like the K-State-TCU title game in 2022? If the Cougars lose a knockdown dragout game in overtime that features a miraculous goal-line stand and a game-winning field goal, would that change the committee’s mind?

The only plausible reason for Notre Dame to be ranked ahead of BYU right now is the eye test. The Cougars were thoroughly dominated the one time they played a sure-fire playoff team this year, with the entire nation watching. If they prove they can go toe-to-toe with a playoff team on a neutral field, shouldn’t that change the calculus?

If that happens, maybe then the combination of the eye test and the Cougars’ on-paper resume would be enough to leapfrog the Fighting Irish. 

Big 12 fans know full well that the committee has a history of moving teams around in the final playoff poll. TCU fell from three to six in 2014 after beating Iowa State by 52 points in the final week of the season. 

I wouldn’t predict this to happen, but it’s at least worth considering. 

The good news is that Texas Tech moved up to #4, which puts the Red Raiders in position for a first-round bye

As mentioned above, nothing is guaranteed, but it’s hard to see a scenario in which Tech beats BYU and gets jumped by someone. #9 Alabama is the only team within earshot that still has a game left, and I don’t think a win over Georgia would be worth a five-spot jump. Never say never when it comes to the SEC, but Tech appears safe if it wins. 

Joey McGuire Also Signs Extension

With all of the drama surrounding the playoff rankings and Kalani Sitake’s flirting with Penn State, it was easy to miss the news that Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire signed an extension with the Red Raiders this week. 

McGuire will be paid around $7 million annually, with incentives that could drive that number even higher. 

In a conference with a bunch of coaches who are perfect fits for their school, McGuire is one of the best examples of this. He’s a Texas high school coaching legend who has said he will die a Red Raider. With the financial resources at Tech’s disposal, it’s hard to see him ever going anywhere. 

And he certainly did a job worthy of a raise and extension this year. It’s easy for people to write that off because of the money that went into the roster, but plenty of teams have spent lavishly on players without the success to match the spend. 

It’s not easy to make the pieces fit cohesively and manage the egos that come along with that much money in a locker room. 

McGuire also gets credit for incrementally leveling up the program over the last three seasons, preparing it to take off in 2025.  

He didn’t win Big 12 Coach of the Year, but he certainly could have. I think Sitake was the right call because he lost his starting quarterback after spring football and still won 11 games with a true freshman, but McGuire was a worthy candidate. 

Coach of the year or not, I don’t think Tech fans are going to be complaining about their head coach anytime soon. 

Oh, Yeah…the Big 12 Title Game on Saturday

It’s insane that the actual Big 12 championship game got buried under so much news this week. This is a sold-out rematch of the Big 12 Game of the Year with massive playoff implications. 

If BYU wins, the Big 12 is virtually guaranteed two teams in the playoff field. If Tech wins, the Big 12 is virtually guaranteed a first-round bye in the playoff. Either scenario is a major step forward for the league.

A huge reason BYU isn’t trending to make the field with a loss is how thoroughly dominated they were by Tech the first time. That was the one BYU game this year the entire college football world tuned into, and the Cougars didn’t look like they could hang with a playoff team.

Tech’s vaunted defense held BYU to a season-low 255 yards, and the Red Raiders won the turnover battle 3-0. The Cougars could only muster 2.5 yards per carry and finished 4-for-17 on third and fourth down. BYU ran fewer than ten plays in Tech territory the entire game.

Any thought of a BYU win has to start with finding ways to consistently move the ball on a historically good Big 12 defense. Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin wasn’t fully healthy in the first matchup and managed just 35 yards rushing. He has to have a better game. 

Tech led 13-0 at halftime in Lubbock but missed plenty of chances to totally bury the Cougars early. If QB Behren Morton can lift the Red Raiders above their red zone issues, it could get out of hand quickly. BYU isn’t built to come from behind against a defense like Texas Tech’s. 

I fully expect the Cougars to be more competitive than they were in the first matchup. They must get off to a good start. The Red Raiders have outscored opponents 163-14 in the first quarter this season. 

Chris Klieman Retires; Collin Klein Will Replace Him

I’m sure many were shocked to see the news that 58-year-old Chris Klieman retired as K-State head coach this week. 

Count Kansas head coach Lance Leipold as somebody who thought he had a lot more coaching left in him. 

Around K-State circles, it had long been a poorly kept secret that Klieman wasn’t likely to coach deep into his sixties. There was also a near-perfect successor (on paper) ready for his chance to take the reins in Manhattan in former K-State Heisman finalist QB Collin Klein, who recently finished runner-up for the Oklahoma State head coaching job and nearly took the open USF job. 

Still, over the last couple of weeks, it seemed like all signs were pointing toward Klieman returning for an eighth season in 2026. 

That changed early this week when Klieman informed athletics director Gene Taylor of his intention to step away. The Wildcats immediately pursued Klein and locked him up in principle just in the nick of time before things went too far at USF. 

The hope was to sit on that huge news through Wednesday’s National Signing Day, but the Manhattan Mercury broke the story early that morning. 

K-State fans owe an immense debt of gratitude to Klieman for the job he did in Manhattan. 

His list of accomplishments stands on its own: only the third Big 12 championship in school history, five 8+ win seasons, and a 54-34 overall record. But the biggest thing he did for K-State football was prove that somebody outside of Bill Snyder could win at a conference championship level in Manhattan. 

Things didn’t go well the first time the Wildcats tried to replace Snyder. Ron Prince burned out in less than three seasons before Snyder came to the rescue once again. 

It was easy to assume that what was once deemed by Sports Illustrated as “Futility U” before Snyder showed up was bound to become a loser again without him. Klieman put an end to that narrative. 

He was also a perfect representative and ambassador of K-State football. You won’t find many as widely respected and beloved by his peers and players. It doesn’t take long to figure out he’s as genuine and caring as they come in coaching. He’s the type of person we all should aspire to be. 

Though this season was very frustrating, and I was certainly critical of the direction of the program, I have a deep appreciation for what he gave K-State, and I will miss him. 

Having said that, I am incredibly excited that Klein is leaving his gig as Texas A&M offensive coordinator to come back home. 

It’s a hire the Wildcats simply had to make. When a beloved Heisman-finalist alum is one of the hottest young names in coaching after killing it as an SEC coordinator for a playoff team, you have to take that chance. K-State fans have long lamented missing multiple opportunities to hire KSU alum Brad Underwood in basketball.

There is no guarantee Collin Klein will work at K-State. BYU struck gold with an alum in Kalani Sitake. Texas Tech did not with Kliff Kingsbury. 

But Klein will allow the Wildcats to give it their best shot in this new era of college football that requires plenty of cash to compete. Nobody on planet earth would galvanize K-State donors more than Klein. He is universally beloved in the fan base, from the hyper-online aggressive superfans to the Proud of The House We Built fans (K-Staters will get the reference). Klein was a part of two of the three Big 12 titles in school history, one as a player and one as the offensive coordinator. 

He has also now seen what it takes to compete at the highest level in the SEC at a school that prints money. Klein can play a key role in modernizing the K-State athletics department at a time when it desperately needs it. If there’s one guy who has the cachet around Manhattan to do it, it’s him. 

I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a hint of “be careful what you wish for” in the back of my mind with Klieman passing the baton to his former offensive coordinator. But I’m also keenly aware of the upside. 

This could be K-State’s Kenny Dillingham: an alum perfectly cut out for this era of college football who would be motivated to turn down other jobs to stay home.

Ready or not, here comes the Collin Klein era.

What You Need to Know

  • Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is the latest Big 12 coach being pursued by Penn State. On3 reports that he is now the focus of the Nittany Lions’ search.

  • The All-Big 12 awards and teams were announced on Thursday. Kalani Sitake is the Big 12 Coach of the Year. Shockingly one of the Big 12’s best teams got shut out on the first-team offense. 

  • BYU’s Twitter account has had enough of being undervalued by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Check out this tweet and this tweet.  

  • Utah could have played an extra football game this weekend. Vanderbilt approached the Utes about playing a game as a showcase for the College Football Playoff selection committee with both teams on the outside looking in. 

  • If you’re in the giving spirit this holiday season, you can help out a fellow Big 12 fan in need of emergency eye surgery.

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