The schedule this week is full of bangers in the Big 12. 

Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Salt Lake City, two Big 12 contenders square off in Waco, and TCU can twist the knife on SMU.

Week Four Primer

I’ll be previewing every week of the Big 12 season by giving you the top five things to watch for. Here’s what you need to know about week four.

All times listed are Central Time (CST)

Big 12 Championship Preview?

#17 Texas Tech (3-0) at #16 Utah (3-0) – 11:00 AM Fox
Line: Utah -2.5

If Texas Tech at Utah doesn’t get you fired up, college football might not be for you.

It’s the biggest matchup of the weekend, and loaded with storylines.

The truth is, we still don’t know exactly what to make of either team.

Tech obliterated its first three opponents by an average of 58-12. That dominance pushed the Red Raiders to No. 1 in one version of ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

But none of those opponents are ranked in the SP+ top 100.

Utah? They crushed UCLA 43-10, but the Bruins also lost to two Group of Six teams — including New Mexico by 25.

We do know there’s plenty of talent on both sides. 

Tech’s top-ranked portal class beefed up its defensive line, and Pro Football Focus now grades that unit as the best in the country. DT Skyler Gill-Howard is ranked No. 1 at his position nationally, and Lee Hunter, Romello Height, and David Bailey all sit in the top 20.

They’ll clash with Utah’s offensive line featuring two top-15 draft prospects at tackle: Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. Some say this is the best battle in the trenches you’ll see all season in college football.

Still, the game may come down to the QBs. Utah’s Devon Dampier has filled up the highlight reel without a single turnover. Tech’s Behren Morton already has 923 yards and 11 TDs.

The question: Can Morton make plays in one of the toughest road environments in the country against a Whittingham/Scalley defense? If he does, he’ll cement himself among the Big 12’s elite quarterbacks.

This one feels big enough to get a sequel in Arlington. Stay tuned.

Can Arizona State Find Itself Again?

Arizona State (2-1) at Baylor (2-1) – 6:30 Fox
Line: Baylor -2.5

The vibes haven’t been great this year for the defending Big 12 champions in Tempe. 

Arizona State already lost to a team that finished last in the SEC last year. QB Sam Leavitt, who had Heisman hype, has struggled to meet expectations. He even admitted this week that he didn’t push as hard after last season’s praise.

Baylor’s defense gave up 137 rushing yards to Auburn QB Jackson Arnold in week one, which sets up well for Leavitt to use his legs. But the Bears are hot after a comeback win over SMU and a blowout of Samford. QB Sawyer Robertson is second in the nation in passing yards and can throw Baylor into any game.

The winner of this one vaults right back into the Big 12 title conversation.

ACC Double Whammy

SMU (2-1) at TCU (2-0) – 11:00 AM ESPN2
Line: TCU -6.5

TCU has a chance to hit SMU with a double shot.

The Horned Frogs can beat their bitter rival and erase last year’s 66-42 embarrassment, and in the process, all but end SMU’s at-large playoff hopes. 

With FSU and Miami rolling in the ACC, it would make any playoff push look daunting for the Mustangs. It’d also give the Big 12 its third win over SMU in two seasons (Baylor 2025, BYU 2024).

Last year, TCU gave up three non-offensive touchdowns and turned it over five times against the Mustangs, letting turnover-prone SMU QB Kevin Jennings play safe. This time, flipping the turnover margin is everything.

Offensively, TCU QB Josh Hoover is averaging 300+ yards and three TDs a game, while the ground game is averaging six yards per carry.

Vegas expects fireworks — the total is 64.5.

BYU on Upset Alert

BYU (2-0) at East Carolin (2-1) – 6:30 ESPN2
Line: BYU -6.5

I’m not sure you could have asked for much more from BYU to start the season. 

The Cougars thumped Portland State and Stanford by a combined 96-3 margin behind a dominant defense, and true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been a steady hand.

By some metrics, they’re a top-five team in the country. 

With Colorado, West Virginia, and Arizona as the first three Big 12 opponents, there’s a real chance BYU could be unbeaten going into the Utah game on October 18th. But first, they have a tricky trip to East Carolina. 

The Pirates were nine yards away from sending their season opener at NC State into overtime, and demolished Coastal Carolina last week. 

It’s going to be a hungry, hostile crowd that the Cougars will see in Greenville, North Carolina. That means the first significant test for Bachmeier, who will be going up against a top 15 rushing and passing defense that leads the nation in turnover margin. How will he handle it all?

BYU needs to establish RB LJ Martin early and often to take some pressure off Bachmeier’s shoulders. 

Belichick v. Big 12 Round Two

North Carolina (2-1) at UCF (2-0) – 2:30 Fox
Line: UCF -7.5

After TCU torched his Tar Heels in week one, Bill Belichick gets another crack at the Big 12, this time against UCF.

Since we last saw them, North Carolina has put together back-to-back comfortable wins against Charlotte and Richmond, but the Tar Heels are still more than a touchdown underdog at the Bounce House. 

UNC is still having a tough time getting starting QB Gio Lopez going, but its defense hasn’t allowed a TD since the TCU game. How much of that is due to the level of competition? We’ll find out on Saturday. 

But many of those same questions can be asked about the Knights as well. Two games against Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T make it impossible to know much about UCF. 

That’s what makes this a very important game for UCF head coach Scott Frost. It’s the only Power Four test for his team before conference play. 

The good news is that UCF wants to play with tempo, just like TCU did. If the Knights can duplicate the Horned Frogs’ 7.4 yards per carry against UNC, they’ll be in great shape.

Week Four Power Rankings

1. Iowa State (LW: 1)

2. Utah (LW: 2)

3. TCU (LW: 3)

4. Texas Tech (LW: 4)

5. Baylor (LW: 5)

6. BYU (LW: 6)

7. Kansas (LW: 7)

8. Arizona State (LW: 8)

9. Houston (LW: 10)

10. Cincinnati (LW: 9)

11. West Virginia (LW: 13)

12. Arizona (LW: 12)

13. Colorado (LW: 11)

14. UCF (LW: 13)

15. K-State (LW: 15)

16. Oklahoma State (LW: 16)

• Not a lot of change here. In fact, the top eight all stayed the same. I debated moving Houston into that group, but I’m still holding onto my preseason expectations for Arizona State…for now. 

• I know I’m not making a lot of friends in Tucson after keeping Arizona at 12 following its win over K-State, but I came away from that game feeling the same about the Wildcats as I did before. 

• It’s tough luck for UCF to fall a spot after a blowout FCS win, but I’ve now seen West Virginia beat a solid Power Four team. I need the same from the Knights before I consider moving them higher. Colorado showed me they can hang with a very good Georgia Tech team.

What You Need to Know

• Two Big 12 schools are looking at playing a football game in London next season. 

• Colorado is making another change at quarterback. 

• West Virginia University has committed to providing funding to the athletic department to support revenue-sharing. This is a smart move and one that I think more Big 12 schools should follow. 

• For a full preview of the Big 12 weekend, check out my latest YouTube Livestream.

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