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Big 12 Showdown Ruined by Injury?
And FSU/Clemson to the Big 12 is likely dead
What is Fox Doing?
This is a friendly reminder that Fox is hosting its Big Noon Kickoff pregame show live from Columbus, Ohio, ahead of the Ohio State-Marshall game (yes, really) instead of Stillwater for Oklahoma State-Utah.
Oklahoma State-Utah is on Fox, by the way.
It’s unclear whether Fox is contractually obligated to do the show at Big 12 campuses throughout the year. Still, even if this week’s decision is based on Big Ten contractual obligations, the situation is emblematic of how stupid college football has become thanks to TV and greed.
That won’t stop us from enjoying a top-15 showdown in Stillwater, even if it’s missing some star power…
What You Need to Know
Will Utah quarterback Cam Rising play or not? On Monday, Utah wide receiver Dorian Singer told Utah reporters that Rising would play, but head coach Kyle Whittingham wasn’t as revealing.
The line movement in the Utah-Oklahoma State game would certainly suggest that Vegas thinks Rising won’t be playing. Within a couple of hours on Wednesday, Utah went from a 2.5-point favorite to a three-point underdog.
Multiple reports this week reveal that Florida State and Clemson are discussing an altered revenue distribution structure with the ACC that would end the FSU/Clemson lawsuits against the conference.
The Florida State and Clemson news means it’s much more likely that the two would return to the ACC instead of joining the Big 12 if they don’t have a home in the Big Ten or SEC.
Kansas is rearranging its offensive coaching staff after the unit’s struggles through the first three weeks. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes says it’s more likely than not that he will switch places with quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski on game day.
There’s only one more Iron Skillet battle between TCU and SMU on the schedule after their game Saturday. Mike Craven from Dave Campbell’s Texas Football has a great piece on why this rivalry (and many others) needs to continue.
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Week Four Primer
I’ll be previewing games every week based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest.
Five Yormarks
#12 Utah at #14 Oklahoma State (-2.5) – 3:00 Fox
Will this be the Big 12 game of the year? It certainly could be…if Cam Rising plays.
Unfortunately, the latest line movement in Vegas suggests his availability is very much in question. It would be a huge bummer for everyone involved if Rising can’t go.
The Utes don’t play K-State in the regular season, so this is the most high-profile matchup they have on the schedule. Rising had to wait over 600 days to play a college football game again, and now he may have to miss the biggest game of his return season.
It's brutal, especially considering that his return this year has only amounted to three full quarters of football after he dominated for a half in the opener and went down in the second quarter of the Baylor game.
Above all else, it would ruin this incredible subplot of the game.
Fun fact: The combined age of the starting QBs in Saturday's Utah-Oklahoma State game is 49.
By comparison, the combined age of the starting QBs in Sunday's Colts-Bears game is 44.
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO)
10:39 PM • Sep 16, 2024
True freshman Issac Wilson looked a lot better at Utah State last week than he did protecting a lead against Baylor after Rising initially got hurt, but it’s hard to feel great about Utah’s chances if a top-15 matchup at Boone Pickens Stadium is only his second career start.
The Cowboys do have problems of their own. Namely, how are they not able to run the ball with the reigning Doak Walker Award winner and arguably the most veteran offensive line in college football?
Ollie Gordon II has rushed for just 90 yards on 34 carries (2.6 YPC) in the last two weeks. Head coach Mike Gundy attributed the struggles at Tulsa to an extra man in the box, but logic would tell you most teams defended the Cowboys the same way all of last year, and it didn’t matter.
It has given quarterback Alan Bowman more time to shine, and he’s taken full advantage by throwing for 967 yards and eight touchdowns in three games.
To underscore the disparity, Oklahoma State is 18th in the country in success rate on running plays and 120th on dropback passing plays.
Utah's defense is among the top five in the country in terms of success rate in defending the pass, so the Cowboys' ground game will have to be much better on Saturday.
There are also lingering questions about the OSU defense. Two weeks ago, the Pokes were rocked by an electric Arkansas offense that rolled up over 600 yards, and star pass rusher Collin Oliver is out for a while.
If Rising plays, the Utes should be able to take advantage. If he doesn’t, I’d expect the Cowboys to roll into another showdown with K-State next week unbeaten.
4 Yormarks
#13 K-State (-6.5) at BYU – 9:30 ESPN
This is a tricky, tricky spot for Chris Klieman and K-State.
The version of the Wildcats that steadily throttled Arizona last Friday is probably 10-14 points better than BYU on a neutral field, but this game won’t be played in a sterile dome.
Everything situationally lines up in favor of the Cougars.
Night games at LaVell Edwards Stadium are treacherous for anybody, and K-State isn’t used to a 9:30 p.m. Central kickoff.
The game is sandwiched between two of the biggest contests on the Wildcats’ schedule. Can they keep the same level of focus when taking on a team picked 13th in the Big 12 preseason poll?
BYU will be highly motivated to prove that this 3-0 start isn’t a fluke. The Cougars won their first three games last year while playing a similar non-conference schedule and still missed a bowl.
The BYU defense looks stout, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff is a top-five Power Four quarterback right now, according to Pro Football Focus.
But Retzlaff is turnover-prone, with nine fumbles and six interceptions in seven career starts, and it’s fair to question just how strong BYU’s wins over SMU, Wyoming, and Southern Illinois actually are.
If the Wildcats can exploit Retzlaff’s sloppiness and utilize quarterback Avery Johnson’s legs to take advantage of a perceived weakness of the BYU defense, they should be fine.
Meanwhile, the Cougars hope to prey on a sophomore quarterback making his first Power Four road start. If they also get the porous K-State defense that showed up at Tulane, they can definitely win the game.
This match-up is worth squeezing in a Saturday nap to stay up for.
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5) – 11:00 ESPN2
This game is going to crush somebody’s season.
West Virginia and Kansas are reeling after starting highly anticipated seasons at 1-2, and the natives in their fan bases are restless.
Mountaineer fans spent all week speculating about head coach Neal Brown’s job security and figuring out how much it would cost to fire him.
The true math surrounding the Neal Brown buyout
— Chris Anderson (@CMAnderson247)
7:08 PM • Sep 17, 2024
Kansas fans fiercely debated the merits of benching star quarterback Jalon Daniels and launched a full-blown attack on offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes after a less-than-ideal quote surfaced on Twitter.
Grimes said he met yesterday with a specific group of leaders on this #KUfball team... They talked about how the Illinois loss might not have been rock bottom & that they might have to get all the way to the bottom to refocus & get going in the direction they need to go...
— Matt Tait (@mctait)
4:48 PM • Sep 17, 2024
As rough as things seem now, the Jayhawks and Mountaineers can still win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff – but it’s not likely to happen with a loss on Saturday.
The Kansas defense has quietly improved since last season, and early returns from the offensive line look promising. But none of it matters if Daniels can’t take care of the football.
This game, and KU’s season, hinges on his ability to right the ship.
Neal Brown says he’s tweaking the pass defense this week after the WVU secondary was shredded by Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein – especially in crunch time.
It would also be an opportune time for West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene to play up to the hype he received in the offseason.
If he doesn’t, the Mountaineers' season could bottom out fast, with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and K-State coming up next.
3 Yormarks
Arizona State at Texas Tech (-3) – 2:30 FS1
Arizona State can start 4-0 for the first time in nearly a decade with a win in Lubbock on Saturday.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham put himself on the radar for Big 12 Coach of the Year by finishing the non-conference schedule unbeaten, but can the Sun Devils continue to surge in league play?
The vibes in Lubbock have finally turned around after the Red Raiders absolutely unloaded on North Texas last week, scoring 52 points in the first half en route to a 66-21 win.
Despite all the early-season turmoil, the Red Raiders have a golden opportunity to start Big 12 play at 2-0. Cincinnati comes to Lubbock next week.
There could be plenty of fireworks in this game, with both quarterbacks sizing up shaky pass defenses. Tech ranks 119th in the country in pass defense and gave up 506 yards through the air to Abilene Christian.
Baylor at Colorado (-1.5) – 7:00 Fox
Baylor and Colorado are both feeling better after shaking off week two losses with wins against overmatched competition last week.
There are questions about Baylor’s quarterback situation heading into this one. Toledo transfer Dequan Finn missed the Air Force game with an injury, but Sawyer Robertson filled in nicely, completing 18 of 24 passes for 248 yards.
Coach Prime says he’s preparing for both, and the Bears seem comfortable with either.
WR Josh Cameron (RJr.) discusses the QB situation between Sawyer Robertson (RJr.) and Dequan Finn (6Sr.) going into the weekend against Colorado🏈⬇️
“I feel super comfortable with Sawyer ... Both of those dudes have the arm talent and the smartness and can both make it happen."
— Baylor Bears on SicEm365 (@SicEm365)
5:15 PM • Sep 19, 2024
Is Baylor physical enough to whip Colorado up front like Nebraska did? The Bears’ defense has put up impressive numbers so far this year, but the level of competition can be questioned, especially with Utah quarterback Cam Rising playing less than a half in week two.
TCU (-3) at SMU – 4:00 CW
Don’t get too used to seeing this classic rivalry. After Saturday, only one more game in the series is scheduled.
I understand why TCU didn’t want to extend the Battle for the Iron Skillet when SMU was still in the AAC, but it’s time to make it happen now that they’re a Power Four school.
As long as head coach Sonny Dykes gets his team’s spirit up after blowing a 21-point lead last week to UCF, I think the Horned Frogs should comfortably beat their rivals.
The Mustangs already lost at home to BYU and should have lost at Nevada in week zero. SMU’s typically potent offense has been generally ineffective this year—it ranks 96th in offensive success rate.
Meanwhile, TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is flying under the radar in the Big 12 as one of the league’s most statistically impressive signal callers.
Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5) – 11:00 FS1
Former AAC foes link up in Cincinnati with renewed momentum after commanding performances in rivalry games.
The Bearcats shook off choking away a three-score lead to Pitt by beating defending MAC champion Miami (OH) on the road in one of college football’s oldest matchups.
Since a demoralizing 27-7 week one loss to UNLV, all Houston head coach Willie Fritz has done is take Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman and smash crosstown rival Rice.
A key matchup to watch is the Cincinnati rushing attack against a stout Houston front seven.
The Bearcats have hit the 200-yard mark on the ground in both wins this year, but the Cougars have held back-to-back opponents to 75 yards rushing – including Oklahoma.
2 Yormarks
None
1 Yormark
Arkansas State at #20 Iowa State (-22) – 1:00 ESPN+
The Cyclones got a week to relish their stunning come-from-behind victory in Iowa City, and they’ll finish non-conference play with a very manageable game against Arkansas State.
A bright spot for Iowa State is the return of offensive linemen Jalen Travis and Deylin Hasert, who head coach Matt Campbell says should be available on Saturday.
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