The Tide is Turning

There was no crazy upset in the Big 12 this week, but there were wild games. 

The good news for Big 12 fans is that avoiding major upsets keeps the league in the national conversation. BYU and Iowa State remain unbeaten, forcing the national college football media to discuss the league, even if it’s condescendingly. 

Is it frustrating that BYU and Iowa State have to wade through criticisms about their resume, conference, and the eye test every week, while Notre Dame gets cover for losing at home to Northern Illinois? Unequivocally, yes.

At least the tide seems to be turning on the conversation surrounding BYU. Voices like Josh Pate are finally changing their tune after the Cougars moved to 8-0 over the weekend. 

Much more on that in week nine’s “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.”

Week One: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good

The Top Four Solidified 

We have a clear-cut top four in the Big 12 after week nine, and I think that’s a great thing for the league moving forward. 

BYU embraced the underdog role well and cruised past UCF 37-24 in Orlando. It was a win that should begin to silence some of the doubters. With a bye week coming up, the Cougars will make it to at least November 9th, with the nation still discussing them as an unbeaten team. 

Iowa State was off and is sitting just outside the top ten as we end October. 

K-State survived Kansas. I’m not entirely sure the Wildcats deserved to win, but they found a way. While Jayhawks’ fans won’t want to hear this, that was the better outcome for the conference. 

The Wildcats staying in the top 15-20 before their matchup with Iowa State on November 30th will help the league’s at-large playoff chances, no matter who wins that game. Either it will help push K-State forward or give Iowa State a marquee win to add to its at-large resume. 

Colorado used a 10-14 point swing before halftime to keep Cincinnati at arm’s length and stay in the contender tier. 

Combine the Buffs' star power with enough substance to give them a shot at ten wins, and you have a fourth at-large contender from the conference. 

It may be an outside chance, but having Coach Prime, Shedeur Sanders, and arguably the current Heisman favorite helps their case considerably. 

Farmageddon in Ames is the only game the rest of the year between any of these four teams, which means the Big 12 could realistically wind up with four teams with 10+ wins. That would make it much tougher for the College Football Playoff selection committee to avoid making the Big 12 a multi-bid league. 

The Big 12 narrative has been that it’s a wild conference where anybody can beat anybody, but that won’t move the needle nationally. Multiple undefeated or one-loss teams can build a much more impactful narrative. Great teams command respect. 

Baylor’s Offense

Don’t look now, but Baylor is on a roll. 

The Bears have scored 97 combined points in wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech the last two weeks, led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s nine total touchdowns. 

The rushing total was the most eye-popping stat from the win over the Cowboys. Baylor racked up a staggering 345 yards. That includes a ridiculous 24 yards per carry from running back Dawson Pendergrass, who had 142 yards on only six carries. 

Robertson had 73 yards and a touchdown on the ground himself. He leads the Big 12 with 16 TD passes in five conference games. 

As crazy as it may sound, Baylor's win Saturday against Oklahoma State was its first Big 12 home win in two years. 

How differently would we be talking about Dave Aranda’s team if they had simply knocked down a hail mary in Boulder? Based on a remaining schedule that includes TCU, Houston, Kansas, and West Virginia, they’d be a candidate for an eight-win season if they had. 

As it stands, Aranda has a real chance to get this team to a bowl game. We’ll see if that’s enough to keep his job.

The Bad

The BYU Haters…Again

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Making BYU an underdog is bordering on insanity after the Cougars improved to 8-0 with an “upset” win at UCF on Saturday. 

Remember when the sports books tried this after the K-State win? BYU went to Waco as a 3.5-point underdog and built a 21-point lead by the end of the first quarter. 

The Cougars were a mere 2.5-point favorite at Arizona. They won by three touchdowns. 

Then the sports books had the audacity to make BYU a 2.5-point underdog at 3-4 UCF. Yes, the same 3-4 UCF that averaged just 17 points per game in its previous two home losses to Colorado and Cincinnati. 

All the Cougs did was swallow the Golden Knights whole with over forty minutes of time of possession and a 255-181 advantage on the ground to win going away. 

The BYU haters are in shambles. 

“What is it? Day games? Traveling across the country? I don’t know what excuse the (doubters) are going to come up with next,” BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff said. “We definitely took two and a half (points) personally. I would say our locker room looked at that and got a little extra fired up, for sure.”

The good news is many of the doubters are coming around. SEC-based Josh Pate is one of college football’s most respected voices these days, and he cleared space on his latest show to sincerely apologize to the Cougars. 

I’ll cautiously assume nobody will make BYU an underdog against “bye” this week, but I can already hear the case being made for free-falling Utah on November 9th. 

“The Utes have won nine of the last ten in the Holy War. Rice-Eccles is a tough place to play. The computers still don’t think BYU is a top 20 team.” 

BYU fans should just embrace the doubt. The team clearly thrives in the face of it. If Kalani Sitake’s crew continues to win, everything will take care of itself. 

Brent Brennan’s First Season

Give Arizona credit for not mailing it in on Saturday after falling behind by 18 to West Virginia. The Wildcats pulled to within 31-26 before ultimately falling short. 

But falling short is exactly what Arizona head coach Brent Brennan’s squad has done all season after entering 2024 with lofty expectations. The first-year head coach has to be feeling the heat after dropping to 3-5. 

There’s simply way too much talent for this to be happening. The Wildcats may wind up with three first-round draft picks: wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, cornerback Tacario Davis, and offensive tackle Jonah Savaiinaea. 

Injuries certainly have hurt. Defensive captains Jacob Manu, Gunner Maldonado, and nickel back Treydan Stukes are all out for the year, but that doesn’t explain the inconsistency on offense. 

Arizona scored just one touchdown on its first six possessions of the West Virginia game. Only Utah and Houston have scored less in Big 12 play this year. Neither of those teams has McMillan, Savaiinaea, and quarterback Noah Fifita. 

The Arizona fan base is certainly showing its frustration. After the game, Brennan was asked about fans leaving early in the second half. 

“I don’t even see it,” Brennan said. “I’m focused on what’s happening on the field in that moment or what’s happening with our team. It’s too bad, they missed a hell of a fourth quarter.”

Brennan talked about progress being measured differently for this team after the game because of the injuries. That’s a tough sell when you returned so many offensive pieces from a ten-win team last year. 

I’d be furious if I were an Arizona fan, too. 

Texas Tech Not Finishing

Texas Tech’s loss at TCU is going to leave a mark. 

There was so much to like about what the Red Raiders did to build a 31-14 lead midway through the third quarter. 

On a day filled with fake field goals, Texas Tech stole an early touchdown with a brilliant flip to kicker Reese Burkhardt.

Then backup quarterback Will Hammond pushed a 17-14 Red Raider lead to 31-14 with a pair of touchdowns. He finished 10 of 15 through the air for 121 yards in relief of Behren Morton, who has a shoulder injury. 

But TCU’s streaky, high-octane offense came alive in a hurry. Back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives set up a devastating 84-yard pass from quarterback Josh Hoover to receiver Eric McAllister. It was his only catch of the day. 

There are so many moments to look back on that could have changed the outcome for Tech. Burkhardt missed his only actual field goal attempt of the day. Hammond fumbled at the TCU 27-yard line with 1:38 left to cost the Red Raiders a shot at a go-ahead field goal. Head coach Joey McGuire opted to kick a field goal on 4th and 3 from the TCU six-yard line in a ten-point game. Poor tackling let McAllister turn his catch into a TD. 

Any way you slice it, Tech has lost two straight since putting itself into the Big 12 title conversation with games against Iowa State and Colorado on deck. It’s hard to see the Red Raiders rallying to make it to Arlington. 

McGuire has certainly elevated Texas Tech since taking over, but it looks like this will be another year of hitting his head on the glass ceiling that Mike Leach put up on his way out the door.

The Ugly

KU’s Special Teams

Saturday’s game had to feel all too familiar for Kansas fans in multiple ways. 

It was the fifth game this year that the Jayhawks have lost despite having a lead in the fourth quarter. The only time KU didn’t lead in the fourth this year was when they trailed by just a point to TCU. 

But against K-State specifically, special teams have arguably cost the Jayhawks each of the last two games against their rival. 

After K-State weathered an early storm that almost put them behind 14-0, the Wildcats scored to tie it up. On the ensuing kickoff, Kansas return man Jameel Croft Jr. caught the ball while falling out of bounds at the one yard line. It turned into a safety on the next play, and K-State would score another touchdown before the Jayhawks saw the ball again. 

Kansas’ special teams unit essentially gifted K-State nine points in what turned out to be a two-point game. 

In a four-point loss to the Wildcats last year, the Jayhawks had a blocked extra point get run back for two points by K-State’s Keenan Garber, and KU receiver Trevor Wilson muffed a punt that set up the winning score for the Wildcats. 

You can even trace the special teams troubles back to 2022 when KU’s O.J. Burroughs muffed a punt after the Jayhawks forced a K-State three-and-out to start the game. 

There were plenty of significant mistakes on both sides in the Sunflower Showdown, but another special teams gaffe in a devastating loss will twist the knife even further for the 2-6 Jayhawks. 

Big 12 Favorites Free Falling

Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona, and Utah all lost again on Saturday, bringing their collective Big 12 record to 3-17. 

It’s unbelievable how far the mighty have fallen this year, particularly perennial conference contenders Oklahoma State and Utah. 

The Utes were picked to win the league. Instead, they’re struggling to score 20 points in a game, a feat achieved only once in Big 12 play. Only Houston has scored less this year, yet the Cougars scored more than the Utes did on Saturday at TDECU Stadium. 

Neither a change in offensive coordinator nor at quarterback has made much of a difference. Brandon Rose replaced Issac Wilson in the third quarter but finished with only 45 passing yards. 

Oklahoma State is the only Big 12 team without a conference win after allowing 345 yards rushing in a 38-28 loss at Baylor. It was the first conference home win in two years for the Bears, and it left OSU head coach Mike Gundy with a stern message for his team after the game. 

Injuries on defense have decimated the Cowboys, but this program should be above an 0-5 Big 12 start. Everybody expected the wheels to fall off last year after a tumultuous offseason, and Gundy defied the odds by winning ten games. Can he do it again in 2025 after what is likely to be the worst Oklahoma State football season since Gundy’s inaugural campaign in 2005?

Will Kyle Whittingham want to come back after this mess of a season, especially when defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley has already been named head coach in waiting?

Those are two massive questions for two of the new Big 12’s assumed tentpole programs.

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