Big 12 NCAA Tournament Primer

The NCAA tournament is here! Welcome to arguably the greatest four days on the entire sports calendar. 

The Big 12 is bringing seven teams to the Big Dance and needs a much better showing than last year’s postseason. 

Can Houston win it all? Are Texas Tech, Arizona, and Iowa State capable of Final Four runs? Is BYU a sleeper or ripe for being upset in the first round?

Let’s dive in with a classic one-through-five Yormark preview of the Big 12’s first-round games!

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NCAA Tournament Primer: 1st and 2nd Rounds

I’ll be previewing games based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest. 

Here’s your NCAA tournament primer! All times listed are Central Time (CST)

Five Yormarks

#6 BYU v. #11 VCU – Thursday 3:05 CST (TNT)
BYU -2.5

This is in the running for best matchup in the entire first round. 

It’s honestly a tough break for BYU to draw an opponent this strong after the run they had to end the season. The common belief is that the Cougars would have likely been a five seed if they could play on Sunday. 

Yes, five seeds also routinely get knocked off by 12 seeds, but eleven seeds actually have a winning record (18-14) over six seeds in the last decade. And Atlantic 10 champion VCU is no slouch.  

I’m not trying to toss bad vibes at our friends in Provo, but last year’s BYU season ended as a six-seed losing to eleven-seed Duquesne–the Atlantic 10 champion who beat VCU in the league tournament title game.  

The Cougars themselves are clearly getting tired of the upset talk. See for yourself with this quote from Richie Saunders. 

The Rams are a senior-dominated squad that is tough as nails defensively. They are among the top ten in the country in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense and rely heavily on their backcourt to shoulder the scoring load. 

BYU is 11th in the country in offensive efficiency, making this a must-watch matchup of strength-on-strength when the Cougars have the ball. 

BYU's potential for a deep run makes this even more nerve-wracking for Cougar fans. Winners of nine of their last ten, few teams in the country have been as red hot as the Cougs down the stretch run of the season. 

An elite offense and a deep bench give them a high ceiling if the shots are falling. You won’t find many teams in March that are rolling with a ten-man rotation. 

But the first step is getting past the Rams’ stingy defense just days after being stymied by Houston, who may be the best defensive team in the country. 

Here’s one expert who has BYU making a deep run.

4 Yormarks

#7 Kansas v. #10 Arkansas – Thursday 6:10 CST (CBS)
KU -4.5

Bill Self vs. John Calipari in the first round is about as good as it gets when it comes to March Madness storylines, especially when the winner advances to (most likely) take on Rick Pitino. 

Self and Coach Cal’s previous tournament match-ups both came in the national championship game. The Jayhawks beat Calipari’s Memphis Tigers in 2008, and Cal got revenge with Kentucky in 2012. 

It’s been a disappointing year for both coaches. Calipari’s Razorbacks were sitting at 4-9 in the SEC before rallying to win four of their final five conference games, all of which came against tournament teams. 

Arkansas will get a boost from the return of dynamic freshman Boogie Fland. He dropped 22 in an exhibition win over the Jayhawks in late October but has been out since mid-January with a hand injury. 

The Razorbacks thumped Kansas 85-69 in that exhibition game in Fayetteville, for what it’s worth (not much). 

It would be a significant accomplishment for this KU team to make it out of the first weekend–and not just because they’ve come up well short of preseason number one expectations this year. Amazingly, Self’s Jayhawks have only made it to the second weekend once since 2018. 

Winning the 2022 national championship helps to mask the rest of that stretch, but Self is dealing with an understandably entitled fanbase that expects more than what they’ve been given the last three seasons.

#8 Mississippi State v. #9 Baylor – Fri 11:15 CST (CBS)
MSU -1.5

It’s been a disappointing year for Scott Drew and Baylor. 

Freshman phenom V.J. Edgecombe helped fuel preseason top-ten expectations, but by late February, the Bears were below .500 in the Big 12 and on the bubble.

They rallied to make it into the Big Dance and can use their extensive tournament experience to try to make a run. 

Not only has Baylor made six straight tournaments as a program, but transfers Jeremy Roach (Duke) and Norchad Omier (Miami) both played in Final Fours at their previous schools.  

The Bears are also expected to have guard Langston Love back from an ankle injury. 

Mississippi State comes limping into the tourney out of the mighty SEC. The Bulldogs have just two wins over the last month of the season–both coming against league punching bag LSU. 

A Baylor win should give them a crack at one-seed Duke in the second round.

3 Yormarks

None

2 Yormarks

#3 Texas Tech v. #14 UNC Wilmington – Thurs 9:10 CST (truTV)
Tech -15.5

If the Big 12 is going to make a statement this March, Texas Tech could be at the forefront of it. 

Grant McCasland’s squad has all the pieces necessary to make a deep run, and they’re plenty battle-tested with wins over Houston, Arizona, BYU, Baylor, and Kansas.  

Unfortunately, health could hold them back. 

Guard Chance McMillian and forward Darrion Williams missed time in the Big 12 tournament last week. The pair combines to average over 25 points per game for the Red Raiders. 

Here’s the latest update from McCasland on their availability this week. 

Especially if they’re healthy, the Red Raiders should have a huge advantage offensively. Big 12 Player of the Year J.T. Toppin leads a high-octane Tech attack that averages over 80 points per game against a Seahawk defense that’s 184th in the country. 

UNC Wilmington hasn’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2002, and I don’t expect that to change this week. 

#3 Iowa State v. #14 Lipscomb – Fri 12:30 CST (TNT)
ISU -14.5

Much like Texas Tech, the storyline for the Cyclones this March is health. 

Guard Keshon Gilbert missed four of Iowa State’s final seven games and has been shut down for the rest of the season. The third-team All-Big 12 pick led ISU in assists and was their second-leading scorer. 

Fellow guard Tamin Lipsey missed time in the Big 12 tournament but is expected to go on Friday against Lipscomb. 

Even when banged up, Iowa State is balanced with a bevy of scoring options. Curtis Jones dropped 31 on BYU in Kansas City and averages 17 points per game. Joshua Jefferson averages 13 points and seven rebounds per game, and sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic chips in 11 points per game. 

Lipscomb's high-powered offense averages over 79 points per game, led by Atlantic Sun Player of the Year Jacob Ognacevic. The Bisons are back in the NCAA tournament field for the first time since 2018. 

#4 Arizona v. #13 Akron – Friday 6:35 CST (truTV)
Arizona -13.5

The Wildcats are making their fourth straight trip to the tournament under Head Coach Tommy Lloyd and have their sights set on a deeper run than last year’s Sweet Sixteen appearance. 

They staggered to the finish line of the Big 12 regular season, losing five of their last eight, but were impressive in Kansas City and advanced to the Big 12 tournament title game. 

Akron shouldn’t be intimidated by the stage and atmosphere of an NCAA tournament game. It’s the third trip to the Big Dance in four years for The Zips, though they’ve never won a tournament game in program history. 

Akron rolled through the MAC with a 17-1 record in the regular season but did have to rally from an 18-point deficit in the conference tournament final. Check out the wild ending below. 

This should be a fun game to watch between two teams who love to push the tempo. Akron is 16th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. 

1 Yormark

#1 Houston v. #16 SIU Edwardsville – Thurs 1:00 CST (TBS) 
Houston -28.5

The Big 12 desperately needs Houston to make a Final Four run this year. 

Not having a single team in the Elite Eight last year was a tough blow for the conference, and the Cougars are as poised as anybody in the league to break through this March. 

Houston has already racked up 30 wins and hasn’t lost since February 1st. With four players averaging at least ten points per game, their rotation is balanced, but their true strength lies on the defensive end. Only one team in the country ranks higher in defensive efficiency. 

That kind of defense typically raises your floor in the NCAA tournament. Even if the jumpers aren’t falling for the Cougars on Thursday afternoon, they shouldn’t have a problem locking down an SIU Edwardsville team making its first-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

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