The Big 12’s Playoff Path is Cleared

The Big 12 has plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving – starting with the fact that #17 Tulane got drilled at home by Memphis Thursday night. 

That eliminates the Green Wave from stealing a playoff spot from the league, essentially ensuring the Big 12 champion will make the field. 

A Boise State loss to Oregon State today would be even better. Keep your eye on that game that kicks off at 11:00 central. 

Before we set the stage for the week in the Big 12 with a primer, here’s an incredibly handy chart that shows you exactly how every possible result in a Big 12 game this weekend affects the Big 12 championship game. It’s the best way I’ve seen to track everything. Shout out to Jordan_ICT on Twitter for making it happen. 

One quick note: I’ll hop back into the Big 12 Basketball Anonymous Player Survey next week. Too much football is happening this week to get it all covered in one newsletter.

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Week Fourteen Primer

I’ll be previewing games every week based on a scale of one to five Yormarks. Five Yormarks is the most entertaining and enticing game possible, while one Yormark is a snooze-fest. 

Here’s your week fourteen primer! All times listed are Central Time (CST)

Five Yormarks

#24 K-State (8-3, 5-3) at #18 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2) – 6:30 Fox 
Line: ISU -2.5

This game has it all. You have two rivals that hate each other, College Football Playoff implications, and one team playing for history. 

An Iowa State win would give the Cyclones their first ten-win season in school history and essentially guarantee them a spot in Arlington for the Big 12 championship game. You can see the only scenario where Iowa State could miss the title game in a three-way tie for first here. 

A general rule of thumb for Farmageddon is that the more online an Iowa State or K-State fan is, the more hatred they have for the other side. The temperature of the rivalry was turned up last year during basketball season after this interaction between Jerome Tang and TJ Otzelberger. 

K-State also has the added motivation of revenge from an embarrassing performance in the snow at Bill Snyder Family Stadium last season. It was a game that produced one of the wildest box scores you’ll ever see. 

K-State ran 102 plays, while Iowa State only needed 35 to rack up 42 points. The Cyclones scored on plays of 79, 77, 71, and 60 yards. ISU receiver Jaylin Noel averaged 53 yards per catch, and running back Abu Sama averaged 17 yards per carry. 

Now the Wildcats get the chance to play spoiler. Quarterback Avery Johnson’s legs are key against an Iowa State defense that struggles against the run and allowed 141 yards rushing to Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby two weeks ago. 

Meanwhile, Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht leads one of the nation’s most explosive passing offenses against a spotty K-State secondary. 

We could have some real fireworks here. 

Kansas (5-6, 4-4) at Baylor (7-4, 5-3) – 11:00 ESPN2
Line: KU -1

Arguably, the two hottest teams in the Big 12 will get together in Waco on Saturday. They’ve combined to win eight straight Big 12 games, and Kansas is the first team in FBS history to win three in a row against the top 25 as an unranked team. 

There are stakes here, too. Kansas is fighting for bowl eligibility in a season that started 1-5. If they get it, it will be the first time in KU history that the Jayhawks would have earned three straight bowl bids. 

Baylor still has an outside shot at making the Big 12 title game. They’ll need a lot of help, but they're in the mix. 

Both teams sport dynamic offenses with an incredible one-two punch at quarterback and running back. Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington at Baylor and Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal at Kansas are as good as any duo in the league. 

Robertson threw three interceptions against Houston last week. He’ll have to be careful going up against Kansas corners Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, who have a combined 25 career picks. 

History heavily favors the Bears. Kansas has never won in Waco, and Baylor has won 13 straight in the series. 

For as good as Iowa State-K-State looks on paper, this one has the potential to usurp Farmageddon as the league’s game of the day.

4 Yormarks

#16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2) at Arizona (4-7, 2-6) – 2:30 Fox
Line: ASU -8.5

If you thought last week was chaotic in the Big 12, imagine what happens if Arizona finds a way to stun its in-state rival in the Territorial Cup. 

The Sun Devils are now the flag bearer for the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings and represent the league’s best chance to jump Boise State to land a first-round bye. In other words, they’re a team the league can’t afford to have losing this game. 

There’s no way an Arizona team in the midst of one of the most disappointing seasons in school history with no shot at a bowl can pull this off, right?

Weird things happen during rivalry week. And the Wildcats are catching the Sun Devils coming off of back-to-back massive wins – there’s plenty of letdown potential there. Could ASU even be looking ahead to the Big 12 championship game?

Much like with Iowa State, an Arizona State win almost guarantees them a trip to Arlington, but not quite. Here are your ASU scenarios. 

The good news for Sun Devils fans is that head coach Kenny Dillingham knows all about this rivalry and its significance, which should lessen the potential for a letdown. 

'If you're from Arizona, it’s like, 'When's the Territorial Cup?' That's a big deal,” Dillingham said. “From that perspective, it matters because it's something that's been a part of Thanksgiving. I think of Thanksgiving. That's been part of it to me my entire life."

The recipe for an upset involves a hot start from Arizona, ASU turnovers, and a better-than-typical performance from the Wildcats’ run defense. 

No matter what happens, kudos to Dillingham for being an awesome dude. During Thanksgiving week, the guy gave away $200,000. 

West Virginia (6-5, 5-3) at Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3) – 11:00 FS1
Line: Tech -3

This is a game with Big 12 championship implications for both teams. 

West Virginia still technically has a path there, even at 6-5. Here’s how it can happen. 

Texas Tech’s path to a first-ever Big 12 championship appearance is just as complicated. The only two scenarios in which it could happen would be playing Baylor or K-State. 

Go ahead and pencil in Tech running back Tahj Brooks for 100 yards on Saturday. He’s hit the century mark in every game this season, and the WVU gave up 100+ in the last two weeks to Bryson Washington and RJ Harvey. 

But the bigger mismatch is the 11th-ranked Tech passing offense against WVU’s 122nd-ranked pass defense. 

The Mountaineers have a top-25 rushing offense and should be able to move the ball against a poor Red Raider defense. Tech is particularly vulnerable against the pass if WVU can get a big day out of Garrett Greene. 

This seems like a fun, back-and-forth game. Who knows…maybe it will determine our Big 12 champion.

3 Yormarks

Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8) at #25 Colorado (8-3, 6-2) – 11:00 ABC (Friday)   Line: Colorado -16

Coach Prime vs. the Grand Poobah? You have to listen to Prime describe Mike Gundy at his press conference this week. 

On the surface, it wouldn’t appear that Oklahoma State has much of a chance in this one. The Cowboys are one game away from the first-ever winless conference season in the Mike Gundy era, and at 8-3, Colorado is one of the best stories in college football this year. 

There is a case for chaos here, though. 

How will the Buffaloes respond to a loss to Kansas that was devastating for their Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff chances? They’re still alive but have the worst odds of the four 6-2 teams. 

Coach Prime admitted last week that his team let the positive publicity get to them. This will be a real test of his coaching ability to get them up to play the worst team in the conference just six days later. 

Meanwhile, after a season spent wandering in the quarterback desert, Oklahoma State has found something in freshman Maealiuaki Smith. He torched Texas Tech’s secondary for 429 yards and a pair of touchdowns through the air last week in his first career start. 

Running back Ollie Gordon also had his best day of the season, with 156 yards on 15 carries. Can he replicate Kansas running back Devin Neal’s incredible 200+ yard performance against the Buffs?

Colorado’s passing game should overwhelm a depleted Cowboy defense and be enough for them to get the win. 

If not, it will set the stage early on Friday for another wild Big 12 weekend.

Houston (4-7, 3-5) at #19 BYU (9-2, 6-2) – 9:15 ESPN
Line: BYU -13

The situation here feels very similar to Colorado-Oklahoma State. A heavy home favorite needs a win over a bottom-of-the-league opponent and some help to get to the Big 12 championship game. 

BYU needs a win from either K-State or Arizona to get their shot at a conference crown. Hence, this fantastic shirt BYUtv’s Spencer Linton was rocking on Wednesday. 

Houston has more punch to them than Oklahoma State, though. They’ve beaten two 5-3 Big 12 teams in K-State and TCU and put a real scare into red-hot Baylor last week. 

The bigger issue in projecting a comfortable BYU win is the Cougars stumbling to the finish line of an otherwise incredible regular season.  

Since hammering UCF heading into a bye week, BYU struggled to beat 4-7 Utah, lost at home to 5-6 Kansas, and fell behind 21-0 in a loss at Arizona State. Did something change, or is this a regression to the mean after a 9-0 start?

Either way, if the same November version of BYU shows up, they can lose to Houston. This could also be a get-right game for the Cougars that proves they are capable of making noise in the postseason. 

Willie Fritz’s Cougars are playing for nothing but pride after losing a seventh game last week, but I’d expect a coach as revered as Fritz will have them motivated and ready to put up a fight. 

TCU (7-4, 5-3) at Cincinnati (5-6, 3-5) – 5:00 ESPN+
Line: TCU -3.5

Most media outlets still list TCU as technically alive for the Big 12 championship game. Some don’t. I’m honestly not entirely sure what the path is for TCU to get there, but maybe it still exists?

The Horned Frogs are quietly finishing the season strong. Their only loss over the last five games came on a last-second field goal at Baylor. Capping off an eight-win season, especially after starting 3-3, would be a nice building block for head coach Sonny Dykes after missing a bowl game last year. 

On the other hand, Cincinnati is moving in the opposite direction. The Bearcats weren’t competitive at all at K-State last week in their fourth straight loss, and they need this win to get bowl-eligible. 

What started as a surprisingly promising season for second-year head coach Scott Satterfield has gone downhill in a hurry.

2 Yormarks

Utah (4-7, 1-7) at UCF (4-7, 2-6) – 7:00 Fox (Friday)
Line: UCF -9.5

In July, I expected this to be one of the sneaky Big 12 games of the year. I was higher on UCF than most (whoops) and had Utah in the Big 12 championship game (double whoops). 

Neither team is even playing for a bowl here. To be honest, the most intriguing storylines revolve around the coaches. 

UCF fans seem fed up with Gus Malzahn right now. Even Knights players are getting asked questions about his future. 

Meanwhile, speculation surrounds Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and retirement. 

The 65-year-old previously said he didn’t want to coach past age 65, and the Utes have already named defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley head coach in waiting. 

Could this be Whittingham’s last game? Or Malzahn’s last game at UCF? Or both?

1 Yormark

None

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