We’re still in the thick of the basketball transfer portal. Reports show that the cost of a roster is up 65% year-over-year, and many Big 12 schools still have plenty of work to do to finalize their teams. 

But it was a tweet about the football transfer portal that sparked national discussion today. 

That’s right: $100 million football rosters have entered the chat. 

That number sounds insane. Keep in mind, Pate said it was GMs who told him we’re headed to $100 million. GMs may be especially prone to exaggeration and scare tactics if it helps keep pressure on donors to bring more money to the table.

So, is this all just fear-mongering, or is it real? And if it’s real, is the Big 12’s demise inevitable?

As NIL numbers have skyrocketed over the last four years, there has always been a chorus of media and fans insisting donor fatigue will eventually cool the market. But this basketball transfer portal window is more proof that we’re nowhere near that point yet. 

It was only four years ago that the college sports world was shocked to learn former K-State guard Nijel Pack signed a two-year, $800,000 deal to play at Miami. Now, the top player in the portal, KU’s Flory Bidunga, is rumored to be landing a $5 million deal from Louisville. 

Thankfully, we only had one football portal window this year. But if there had been a spring window again, one of the most connected newsbreakers in college sports says some rosters would have topped $50 million already.

I’ve pivoted toward embracing the chaos in college sports instead of always fearing the worst. Even with that mindset, it’s hard to say with a straight face that NIL spending is about to magically die down because of donor fatigue.

If rosters do climb into the nine-figure range, will the Big 12 survive? I don’t even think that’s the right question. 

At that point, we’re not really talking about entire conferences keeping up. We’re talking about a small handful of schools in any conference with deep enough pockets to spend at the very top.

Larry Ellison could certainly keep Michigan at that level if he wanted to, but what about Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, and a whole host of others?

The SEC is already struggling to keep up competitively with the top of the Big Ten. It’s only going to get harder as NIL spending gets more extreme. $100 million rosters would create a humbling reality for a lot of proud SEC schools.

Of course, Texas Tech’s Matador Club should be able to keep the Red Raiders in the fight, no matter how many cash-stuffed briefcases it takes.

BYU donors may have deep enough pockets to swing it, but would they have the stomach for it? There’s a different sensibility in play there, considering the mission of the university. 

Utah’s $500 million private equity partnership is supposed to drive more revenue, but it’s hard to picture the Utes sustaining a $100 million status quo.

The point is that the Big 12 would not be alone if that’s really where this is headed. And with all the recent action in Washington, D.C., surrounding the future of college sports, it’s plausible that meaningful NIL guardrails could come from the government, for better or worse.

I still think college sports will eventually sort itself out and become more stable. It’s just going to be a bumpy ride getting there, so you’d better hang on tight.

What You Need to Know

• Point guard Rob Wright is coming back to BYU despite entering the transfer portal and visiting Kentucky. The Cougars also landed two other transfers this week. 

• Former Utah forward Keanu Dawes has committed to Kansas. He’s also putting his name into the NBA draft for now. 

• Fanduel’s latest College Football Playoff odds say it’s a slam dunk that Texas Tech makes the playoff. They’re not bullish on any other Big 12 teams. 

• Texas Tech football recruiting keeps on rolling. The Red Raiders got a commitment from another five-star player in the class of 2027. 

• One of Iowa State’s best players is out for the season with an ACL injury, head football coach Jimmy Rogers announced. 

• Former K-State head basketball coach Jerome Tang may have found a new job with an old friend. 

• A former K-State star quarterback says the school took advantage of him and didn’t pay him enough.

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